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Friday, April 15, 2011

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by pot

You are free to use data from this website as long as you include a link to Football-Rankings.info.

See the explanation here.

Pot 1:


100.00% - Spain
100.00% - Netherlands
100.00% - Germany
100.00% - England
100.00% - Italy
98.87% - Greece
94.22% - Croatia
78.54% - Portugal
63.10% - Norway
47.70% - Montenegro
12.05% - Russia
5.52% - France

Pot 2:

100.00% - Denmark
100.00% - Serbia
98.17% - Slovenia
95.85% - Sweden
94.48% - France
93.37% - Slovakia
87.95% - Russia
72.26% - Turkey
52.30% - Montenegro
36.90% - Norway
23.65% - Belgium
21.46% - Portugal
14.26% - Switzerland
5.78% - Croatia
2.15% - Israel
1.13% - Greece
0.26% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
0.03% - Republic of Ireland

Pot 3:

100.00% - Czech Republic
99.82% - Republic of Ireland
98.58% - Ukraine
97.85% - Israel
85.74% - Switzerland
76.35% - Belgium
76.20% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
70.19% - Hungary
69.58% - Belarus
31.35% - Bulgaria
27.74% - Turkey
25.76% - Albania
9.79% - Romania
7.65% - Lithuania
6.63% - Slovakia
4.15% - Sweden
3.66% - Georgia
3.60% - Austria
3.44% - Armenia
1.83% - Slovenia
0.04% - Northern Ireland
0.02% - Scotland
0.01% - Estonia
0.01% - Latvia
0.01% - Finland

Pot 4:

99.26% - Northern Ireland
98.79% - Scotland
96.34% - Georgia
92.35% - Lithuania
88.54% - Romania
74.24% - Albania
68.65% - Bulgaria
50.58% - Armenia
49.73% - Austria
30.90% - Latvia
30.42% - Belarus
30.11% - Poland
29.81% - Hungary
23.54% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
13.20% - Finland
8.90% - Estonia
8.76% - Moldova
2.83% - FYR Macedonia
1.46% - Azerbaijan
1.42% - Ukraine
0.15% - Republic of Ireland
0.02% - Faroe Islands

Pot 5:

100.00% - Cyprus
97.16% - FYR Macedonia
93.86% - Azerbaijan
91.24% - Moldova
91.09% - Estonia
86.79% - Finland
69.89% - Poland
69.09% - Latvia
56.66% - Iceland
46.67% - Austria
45.98% - Armenia
31.95% - Wales
10.33% - Faroe Islands
3.53% - Luxembourg
1.82% - Liechtenstein
1.67% - Romania
1.19% - Scotland
0.70% - Northern Ireland
0.38% - Malta

Pot 6:

100.00% - Kazakhstan
100.00% - Andorra
100.00% - San Marino
99.62% - Malta
98.18% - Liechtenstein
96.47% - Luxembourg
89.65% - Faroe Islands
68.05% - Wales
43.34% - Iceland
4.68% - Azerbaijan
0.01% - FYR Macedonia

6 comments:

  1. Interesting that your previous "probable" ranking puts Montenegro in the top pot and Norway in the 2nd, while this predicts Montenegro in the 2nd and Norway in the first.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I wonder what the odds are of both of them at the same time?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Interesting that your previous "probable" ranking puts Montenegro in the top pot and Norway in the 2nd, while this predicts Montenegro in the 2nd and Norway in the first.
    ---
    Yeah.

    This way is the most 'accurate' way of doing it, because it doesn't assume 100 % probability of the most likely result. But it's also very time-consuming I'd imagine.

    ReplyDelete
  4. What does mean 10000 simulations?
    Is it 10000 per team or 10000 in total?
    I do not think there could be 10000 different combinations which could influence particular team.

    I am really looking forward for Edgar's explanation.

    ReplyDelete
  5. @confused

    For each match randomly generate outcome based on Elo Ratings.

    Repeat this 10000 times.

    ReplyDelete