I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.
- Bosnia-Herzegovina will find a solution and escape suspension
- The July 2011 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by pot (22 April 2011)
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by team (22 April 2011)
Nine teams are already locked (based on the current list of fixtures on FIFA.com).
Spain, Netherlands, Germany, England and Italy in Pot 1.
Denmark and Serbia in Pot 2.
Andorra and Kazakhstan in Pot 6.
Cyprus appear 100% in Pot 5, but they could also drop to Pot 6 in some very, very unlikely scenarios.
Poland have improved their chances to reach pot 4 by scheduling a friendly against Czech Republic from 30.11% to 46.61%. Somebody had to lose and it's Armenia - their chances of reaching pot 4 dropping from 50.58% to 40.37%. Poland also replace Armenia in Pot 4 (see below).
Based on these 10000 simulations, these is most likely composition of pots. In each pot, teams are sorted alphabetically, so don't read anything into their order.
Pot 1: Croatia, England, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain
Pot 2: Denmark, France, Montenegro, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Turkey
Pot 3: Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Hungary, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Switzerland, Ukraine
Pot 4: Albania, Austria, Bulgaria, Georgia, Lithuania, Northern Ireland, Poland, Romania, Scotland
Pot 5: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, FYR Macedonia, Iceland, Latvia, Moldova
Pot 6: Andorra, Faroe Islands, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, San Marino, Wales