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Friday, April 15, 2011

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by team

You are free to use data from this website as long as you include a link to Football-Rankings.info

See the explanation here.

Spain: 100.00% in Pot 1
Netherlands: 100.00% in Pot 1
Germany: 100.00% in Pot 1
England: 100.00% in Pot 1
Italy: 100.00% in Pot 1
Greece: 98.87% in Pot 1, 1.13% in Pot 2
Croatia: 94.22% in Pot 1, 5.78% in Pot 2
Portugal: 78.54% in Pot 1, 21.46% in Pot 2
Norway: 63.10% in Pot 1, 36.90% in Pot 2
Montenegro: 52.30% in Pot 2, 47.70% in Pot 1
Russia: 87.95% in Pot 2, 12.05% in Pot 1
France: 94.48% in Pot 2, 5.52% in Pot 1
Denmark: 100.00% in Pot 2
Serbia: 100.00% in Pot 2
Slovenia: 98.17% in Pot 2, 1.83% in Pot 3
Sweden: 95.85% in Pot 2, 4.15% in Pot 3
Slovakia: 93.37% in Pot 2, 6.63% in Pot 3
Turkey: 72.26% in Pot 2, 27.74% in Pot 3
Belgium: 76.35% in Pot 3, 23.65% in Pot 2
Switzerland: 85.74% in Pot 3, 14.26% in Pot 2
Israel: 97.85% in Pot 3, 2.15% in Pot 2
Bosnia-Herzegovina: 76.20% in Pot 3, 23.54% in Pot 4, 0.26% in Pot 2
Republic of Ireland: 99.82% in Pot 3, 0.15% in Pot 4, 0.03% in Pot 2
Czech Republic: 100.00% in Pot 3
Ukraine: 98.58% in Pot 3, 1.42% in Pot 4
Hungary: 70.19% in Pot 3, 29.81% in Pot 4
Belarus: 69.58% in Pot 3, 30.42% in Pot 4
Bulgaria: 68.65% in Pot 4, 31.35% in Pot 3
Albania: 74.24% in Pot 4, 25.76% in Pot 3
Romania: 88.54% in Pot 4, 9.79% in Pot 3, 1.67% in Pot 5
Lithuania: 92.35% in Pot 4, 7.65% in Pot 3
Georgia: 96.34% in Pot 4, 3.66% in Pot 3
Austria: 49.73% in Pot 4, 46.67% in Pot 5, 3.60% in Pot 3
Armenia: 50.58% in Pot 4, 45.98% in Pot 5, 3.44% in Pot 3
Northern Ireland: 99.26% in Pot 4, 0.70% in Pot 5, 0.04% in Pot 3
Scotland: 98.79% in Pot 4, 1.19% in Pot 5, 0.02% in Pot 3
Latvia: 69.09% in Pot 5, 30.90% in Pot 4, 0.01% in Pot 3
Finland: 86.79% in Pot 5, 13.20% in Pot 4, 0.01% in Pot 3
Estonia: 91.09% in Pot 5, 8.90% in Pot 4, 0.01% in Pot 3
Poland: 69.89% in Pot 5, 30.11% in Pot 4
Moldova: 91.24% in Pot 5, 8.76% in Pot 4
FYR Macedonia: 97.16% in Pot 5, 2.83% in Pot 4, 0.01% in Pot 6
Azerbaijan: 93.86% in Pot 5, 4.68% in Pot 6, 1.46% in Pot 4
Faroe Islands: 89.65% in Pot 6, 10.33% in Pot 5, 0.02% in Pot 4
Cyprus: 100.00% in Pot 5
Iceland: 56.66% in Pot 5, 43.34% in Pot 6
Wales: 68.05% in Pot 6, 31.95% in Pot 5
Luxembourg: 96.47% in Pot 6, 3.53% in Pot 5
Liechtenstein: 98.18% in Pot 6, 1.82% in Pot 5
Malta: 99.62% in Pot 6, 0.38% in Pot 5
Kazakhstan: 100.00% in Pot 6
Andorra: 100.00% in Pot 6
San Marino: 100.00% in Pot 6

3 comments:

  1. What formula did you use to calculate the chance for a draw? 1.31*p*(1-p) where p is the expectation calculated using ELO like Voros did a few years ago?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Minimum(1/3, WinExpectancy, 1 - WinExpectancy).

    ReplyDelete
  3. That's a bit too much in most cases but quite reasonable...

    ReplyDelete