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Friday, April 8, 2011

2014 FIFA World Cup probable seeding for UEFA teams (8 April 2011)

See the list of probable results.

I assume Bosnia-Herzegovina will find some sort of solution before their qualifier against Romania.

Arild Sandven from Norway's Aftenposten might be a bit disappointed - Norway will probably fall from the first pot. Thanks for the link Arild! Other newspapers use info from my website and "forget" to even mention the source.

FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings


Special mention for Poland (25 in Europe in the Elo Rating). Based on the Elo Ratings they would be in the third pot, but their probable FIFA Ranking puts them in the fifth pot. I was some sort of prophet in November 2009.

Sweden (8) and France (9) fail to reach the first pot.
Ukraine (11), Republic of Ireland (14) and Switzerland (18) fail to reach the second pot.
Romania (21), Bulgaria (23) and Scotland (26) fail to reach the third pot.
Finland (33) and Latvia (36) fail to reach the fourth pot.
Wales (39) fail to reach the fifth pot.


Montenegro (20) in the first pot! Based on their Elo Rating, they would be in the third pot.
Slovakia (30) in the second pot. Based on their Elo Rating, they would be in the fourth pot.

Greece (16) in the first pot.
Slovenia (22) in the second pot.
Bosnia-Herzegovina (28), Hungary (29) and Belarus (31) in the third pot.
Georgia (37), Albania (40) and Armenia (44) in the fourth pot.
Iceland (46) in the fifth pot.

Rank - Team - Points

 1 Spain                    1609
 2 Netherlands              1577
 3 Germany                  1305
 4 England                  1243
 5 Italy                    1116
 6 Portugal                 1076
 7 Croatia                  1033
 8 Montenegro               1011
 9 Greece                    994
10 Norway                    972
11 Russia                    943
12 France                    932
13 Sweden                    884
14 Denmark                   856
15 Serbia                    852
16 Slovenia                  832
17 Turkey                    820
18 Slovakia                  779
19 Republic of Ireland       736
20 Switzerland               724
21 Czech Republic            703
21 Israel                    703
23 Belgium                   691
24 Bosnia-Herzegovina        642
25 Ukraine                   625
26 Hungary                   603
27 Belarus                   594
28 Romania                   571
29 Lithuania                 568
30 Albania                   558
31 Bulgaria                  550
32 Georgia                   530
33 Scotland                  513
34 Northern Ireland          506
35 Austria                   479
36 Armenia                   462
37 Poland                    459
38 Estonia                   434
39 Latvia                    432
40 Finland                   419
41 Cyprus                    398
42 Moldova                   383
43 FYR Macedonia             331
44 Azerbaijan                299
45 Iceland                   244
46 Wales                     240
47 Luxembourg                213
48 Kazakhstan                173
49 Faroe Islands             156
50 Liechtenstein             109
51 Malta                      83
52 Andorra                     0
52 San Marino                  0


  1. Did you use the predicted May rankings to know how many points each result in June would bring?

  2. Oh, if Montenegro take that spot, I can't wait to see the reaction!

  3. A draw with Portugal gives Norway ~45 points and makes Portugal lose 70, so that makes the equation pretty simple for Norway. Draw with Portugal and beat Lithuania.

    And yes, Montenegro in first pot with a competitive record of W5 D7 L3 is weird. (I'm counting the Bulgaria match as a win because it won't happen otherwise)

  4. @Haakon
    I am not quite sure Montenegro will beat Bulgaria.
    Montenegro have deep quality, but there is not wide quality so I do not expect they will continue their 1:0 wins.

  5. @ Confused

    Montenegro haven't conceded a goal for nearly a year. I watched my England hammer them for 90 minutes solid and they didn't concede. Here are their 100% ranking points results:

    Northern Ireland 2-0 (H)
    Wales 1-0 (H)
    Bulgaria 1-0 (A)
    Switzerland 1-0 (H)
    England 0-0 (A)
    Azerbaijan 2-0 (H)
    Uzbekistan 1-0 (H)

    They will drop 2 defeats to 50% in the June ranking, so then they will surge up the table. They've got nothing but victories except the draw with England and that match at 2.5X vs 6th in the World is still worth about as much as those friendly wins, so they have a huge score right where it counts in this system at 100%.

    It would be nice if England and Montenegro carry on winning I think. That would turn the final match in Podgorica into a nice stress free friendly with the best runner up place already in the bag for the loser thus both teams already qualified.

  6. Edgar, can you please tell me why is this draw so early, not as usual in November an even next year? Some of these doesn't seem logic at all...

  7. @confused

    I'm not sure of a Montenegro win either, but my point was that if they don't win, they won't be seeded that high (so their record will be 4-8-3 or 4-7-4 instead, which shouldn't really be worth a second pot but at least that doesn't give the possibility of a group of life)

    That record (5-7-3) would be worth about 15 points in a six-team group, by the way. Usually enough for fourth. Admittedly that's a wrong way of looking at it because Montenegro haven't had the opportunity to beat up on minnows yet due to their low seeding so far.

  8. On the list of probable results you guessed that Latvia and Israel would get a tie on June 6th. In the case that Israel would win (and the rest of your guesses stays the same), does Israel has a chance reaching the 2nd pot ?

  9. why have you not considered an international friendly game between Moroco and Botswana which was played in Morocco on March 30th 2011? how are we to trust your method of rating teams if you cant get your facts right? the game ended in a 1 all draw in which the away team, Botswana, would have gained some points if your rating of teams is fair, the game was in the FIFA calender incase you choose to make that an excuse...

  10. Hey Anonymous (04/12/2011),

    stop making false accusations. Just take a look at the FIFA-list and jou will see that the Morocco-game isn't there anymore.

    Edgar's calculations are completely correct. Please take a good look at the calculation-method before make such stupid accusations ! Or better... stop commenting on things you obviously do not have the faintest idea about.


  11. Hey Anonymous once again.
    If you are not satisfied with Edgar's calculations do not offence or do not visit this site.
    This calculations are free and "as it is" and there is nobody's obligations to satisfy you.

  12. I am from Montenegro and I's wonderful to see something like this. I just want to ask how is this possible because before last August MNE had very bad results and for draw results from last 4 years counts?

  13. @ Anonymous from Montenegro

    Look up to my comment earlier, that should help you out a bit.

  14. Hey Anonymous-Botswana,

    have you compared Edgar's predicted ranking with the official FIFA-ranking published this morning ? And..... have you got your facts right already ?

    Greetings, Ed

  15. @Amir

    Yes, I used the predicted May rankings.


    Me too, can't wait to see what the reaction will be if Montenegro are in the first pot.


    The draw was brought forward to allow more time for AFC and CONCACAF.


    I already answered (you?) here. Are you Isaac Thobile by any chance? What's with all the angry Batswana?


    Thanks! :)


    Scenarios later today - hopefully :)