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Friday, April 1, 2011

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding for UEFA teams (1 April 2011)

You are free to use data from this website as long as you include a link to Football-Rankings.info
________________

Next update: 10 June 2011

Quick update to include Qatar - Russia 1 - 1. FIFA decided to keep the match...

The preliminary draw will take place on July 31st, 2011. UEFA will have 13 spots and will use the system with 9 groups.

Assumption:

- FIFA will use the July 2011 FIFA ranking to seed the teams

The July 2011 FIFA ranking will include matches played between July 2007 and July 2011. Only 4 months left - don't expect drastic changes.

UEFA will only use the national team coefficient for the European Championships draws (qualifying and final tournament).

This is the July 2011 ranking (for UEFA only) using matches played up to and including March 29th, 2011 and matches scheduled up to July 2011 (only those on fifa.com).

The "1.0" part is computed this way: points gained / (number of matches played + scheduled).

Netherlands are now on top, but Spain will keep their place anyway since they are holders.

Israel, Belgium and Albania replace Belarus, Lithuania and Scotland in the third pot.
Georgia replace Austria in the fifth pot.
Iceland replace Wales in the sixth pot.

Best movers:

10 - Georgia
9 - Albania
8 - Israel

Worst movers:

-7 - Scotland
-6 - Lithuania and Austria
-5 - Hungary and Belarus

Most points gained:

246 - Netherlands
211 - Israel
199 - Spain

Most points lost:

-22 - Latvia
-20 - Ukraine
-17 - Scotland

Rank - Previous rank - Team - Total points
 1  2 Netherlands              1573
 2  1 Spain                    1559
 3  3 Germany                  1120
 4  4 England                  1097
 5  8 Italy                    1023
 6  7 Greece                    956
 7  5 Norway                    926
 8  6 Croatia                   925
 9  9 Portugal                  919
-----------------------------------
10 11 Montenegro                867
11 16 Serbia                    852
12 10 Russia                    839
13 12 France                    815
14 15 Denmark                   787
15 18 Turkey                    775
16 14 Slovenia                  757
17 13 Slovakia                  742
18 17 Switzerland               724
-----------------------------------
19 21 Sweden                    709
20 19 Czech Republic            703
21 29 Israel                    669
22 28 Belgium                   648
23 20 Ukraine                   607
24 24 Republic of Ireland       597
25 34 Albania                   558
26 27 Bulgaria                  550
27 22 Hungary                   548
-----------------------------------
28 23 Belarus                   543
29 39 Georgia                   530
30 35 Bosnia-Herzegovina        529
31 25 Lithuania                 526
32 30 Northern Ireland          498
33 26 Scotland                  487
34 31 Romania                   474
35 36 Armenia                   462
36 33 Poland                    444
-----------------------------------
37 31 Austria                   442
38 42 Estonia                   399
39 38 Cyprus                    398
40 40 Moldova                   383
41 37 Latvia                    380
42 41 Finland                   377
43 43 FYR Macedonia             331
44 44 Azerbaijan                282
45 47 Iceland                   244
-----------------------------------
46 45 Wales                     223
47 46 Luxembourg                213
48 48 Faroe Islands             156
49 49 Kazakhstan                145
50 50 Liechtenstein             109
51 51 Malta                      83
52 52 Andorra                     0
52 52 San Marino                  0

27 comments:

  1. Please, give us probable results for 2014 UEFA seedings.
    Did you include them in this seeding?

    ReplyDelete
  2. No, they are not included. I don't have time today. Next Friday.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi Edgar. Is there still any chance for Belarus to climb back to pot 3?

    ReplyDelete
  4. That really depends on your home game against France and how Hungary, Bulgaria and Albania perform in their remaining matches.

    A more detailed answer on April 8th.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi Edgar, if Hungary makes 2 wins against Luxemburg and San Marino in June, and Albania will lost in Sarajevo, it is sure to Hungary will be in the 3rd pot (by the FIFA Rankings), isn't it?
    And when does FIFA decide to use the FIFA Rankings or the UEFA coefficients? I'm afraid of the 2nd pot of France - the big money in the football can't let drawn France with another big team... So maybe they will use the UEFA coefficients..?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hello Edgar,

    why is this draw so soom? It is usualy at the end of year or at beggining of next, after EURO qual. is over.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Wales... *facepalm*

    Northern Ireland and Scotland falling too.

    Don't tell me they have to depend on Bosnia-Herzegovina to be ejected from the draw to avoid the bottom pot...

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hi Edgar, please could you give us the posible variables for Sweden to enter group 2? Many Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Is Norway secured a top seeding? The Norwegian newspaper Aftenposten is claiming so. But as it's April 1st I have my doubts. Norway have two matches left before the final ranking. Portugal on June 4 and a private vs Lithuania on June 7. I can't understand anything else than that both Montenegro, Serbia, Russia and perhaps even France may surpass Norway if they have the results with them.

    ReplyDelete
  10. I'm quite sure Norway will fail during their last matches - especially versus Lithuania. That is, from what I've heard and seen, typical for Norwegian football. The wierd thing about Norway, is that they always lose when meeting supposedly weaker opponents. That is really special, since they're winning agains teams like Portugal, Germany, France, Brasil, etc.

    I also have to say that I'm not sure if the top seeding is secured. But too me, it looks like (as you wrote) both Montenegro and Serbia have the chance to surpass Norway.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Hi Edgar,
    seedings without friendlies would be appriciated too...

    ReplyDelete
  12. As far as I calculated in Excel and with these probable results:

    Portugal Norway 1
    Norway Lithuania 1
    Croatia Georgia 1
    Montenegro Bulgaria 1(X)

    the ranking will be:
    ...
    Croatia 1031
    Montenegro 1002 (905)
    Norway 988
    ...

    Let's wait official (Edgar's) results...

    ReplyDelete
  13. Serbia is not playing any matches until September 2011 when they meet Northern Ireland away. The Serbian FA has not yet arranged any friendly matches in June. Don't know if they are going to do that at all.

    Montenegro, however, is playing Bulgaria in Podgorica in June. As I know how Montenegro is playing, both home and away, be sure that Montenegro is winning this one.

    Croatia is meeting Georgia in June, a sure victory for the croatians.

    As Portugal are playing Norway in Lisboa, they are probably going to win that match. Portugal will with pass Norway on this list.

    This leaves us, i guess, at this ranking:

    7 Portugal
    8 Croatia
    9 Montenegro
    -----------------------------------
    10 Norway
    11 Serbia

    With victories for Portugal and Croatia, and loss for Norway, I guess all depands on Montenegro vs. Bulgaria, and Serbia, if they arrange a strong friendly-meeting, and win it. Edgar, please confirm my post! :)

    ReplyDelete
  14. @confused
    Where is Portugal on your ranking? They got to be ahead of Norway and Montenegro? If so, Norway is out of top-seeds.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Serbia is not playing any matches until September 2011 when they meet Northern Ireland away. The Serbian FA has not yet arranged any friendly matches in June. Don't know if they are going to do that at all.

    Montenegro, however, is playing Bulgaria in Podgorica in June. As I know how Montenegro is playing, both home and away, be sure that Montenegro is winning this one.

    Croatia is meeting Georgia in June, a sure victory for the croatians.

    As Portugal are playing Norway in Lisboa, they are probably going to win that match. Portugal will with pass Norway on this list.

    This leaves us, i guess, at this ranking:

    7 Portugal
    8 Croatia
    9 Montenegro
    -----------------------------------
    10 Norway
    11 Serbia

    With victories for Portugal and Croatia, and loss for Norway, I guess all depands on Montenegro vs. Bulgaria, and Serbia, if they arrange a strong friendly-meeting, and win it. Edgar, please confirm my post! :)

    @confused
    Where is Portugal on your ranking? They got to be ahead of Norway and Montenegro? If so, Norway is out of top-seeds.

    ReplyDelete
  16. I didn't calculate Portugal because I expect they will surely beat highly ranked Norway and get many points to be above Croatia and Norway.

    I calculated only those three teams and Serbia as fourth. My calculations give Serbia total 839 points.

    But, I repeat, let's wait Edgar's analyse.
    As far as I know Serbia have arranged two freindlies vs. Australia in June down under, but they are not listed at fifa.com

    Serbia's 839 points did not include those friendlies.

    ReplyDelete
  17. What a great start for Montenegro! They can reach the first pot!

    We could have these two groups:

    Death group: Spain, France, Sweden, Romania, Austria, Wales.

    Weak group: Greece, Slovenia, Albania, Armenia, Moldova, San Marino.

    Juan

    ReplyDelete
  18. @confused

    Yes, you are right about those Serbia vs. Australia-matches. I totally forgot about those...

    Anyway, how Serbia is playing lately, I bet Cambodia (no offense!) could beat us, so Australia should have no trouble beating Serbia at home, unbelievable enough.

    Could you maybe, if Edgar doesn't, calculate Serbia's point with two wins in Australia, and also with two losses? I'd be grateful :)

    ReplyDelete
  19. I do not know what is happening, but my last two comments disappeared.
    So again, this is Excel file I created for calculations. Be free, download, try and check, maybe I missed something or made mistake(s).

    bit.ly/fj6WQD

    I've just found one mistake, exclude Finland match from 2.6.2007 because it will be dropped in July ranking.

    Unfortunately for Serbia it will mean less points for Serbia, and total will be 825 points.

    Two wins down under 838 points, two losses 797 points.

    ReplyDelete
  20. @ confused

    OK, thanks. Anyways, Serbia has got no chance of making it to the first pot. Well, second is good enough :) I hope Montenegro can make it... It would be good to have them as an opponent from the first pot.

    Cheers!

    ReplyDelete
  21. Glad Greece only has Malta left to play before end of July, way before the 3 road games or Croatia home game affect their WC ranking/top seed status. Thank you FIFA for making the cutoff so early.

    ReplyDelete
  22. I have always wondered what Greece was doing in top 10 on the ranking, and first pots in the draws?! Incredible, the most defensive, beside Rangers and Norway, team in the history, and being ranked so high... Respect.
    However, I'm always hoping to get Greece from first pot, because 3 points in Belgrade are secured, and surely a draw in Athens...

    ReplyDelete
  23. @Anyonymous:
    "Death group: Spain, France, Sweden, Romania, Austria, Wales.

    Weak group: Greece, Slovenia, Albania, Armenia, Moldova, San Marino."

    You switched Romania and Armenia in your groups, I think.

    Source: I'm Romanian and I've watched both Romania and Armenia play.

    ReplyDelete
  24. The probable seeding for UEFA is now available.

    Regarding chances/scenarios - it will have to wait until next Friday.

    The draw takes place so soon to give more time (read match dates) for confederations like AFC and CONCACAF.

    @Kjello
    Norway haven't secured a top seeding.

    @Amir

    Next Friday.

    @confused

    It's Blogger's antispam system. The comment with the Rapid Share link is now displayed.

    @confused, Serb

    I don't have the time today - next Friday. Sorry.

    ReplyDelete
  25. I can't believe Wales will be in pot 6 next time. We have Gareth Bale and Craig Bellamy (although maybe not for next campaign). And loads of other Premiership players. We shouldn't be in a pot with San Marino, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, etc. No disrespect intended.

    ReplyDelete
  26. @ Anonymous

    Wales have only beaten Azerbaijan and Liechtenstein in competitive games in the last 4 years. Like it or not, there's a reason they're down there.

    ReplyDelete
  27. @ Anonymous

    Oh, and San Marino as well.

    ReplyDelete