I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.
- Bosnia-Herzegovina will find a solution and escape suspension
- The July 2011 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by team
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by pot
Based on these 10000 simulations, these is most likely composition of pots. In each pot, teams are sorted alphabetically, so don't read anything into their order.
Pot 1: Croatia, England, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain
Pot 2: Denmark, France, Montenegro, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Turkey
Pot 3: Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Hungary, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Switzerland, Ukraine
Pot 4: Albania, Armenia, Austria, Bulgaria, Georgia, Lithuania, Northern Ireland, Romania, Scotland
Pot 5: Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, FYR Macedonia, Iceland, Latvia, Moldova, Poland
Pot 6: Andorra, Faroe Islands, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, San Marino, Wales