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Wednesday, June 23, 2010

2010 FIFA World Cup: Various stats and info (II)

Confederation weighting - CONMEBOL still in front, UEFA with 0.94, the rest at 0.85.

Interesting analysis (with all kind of probabilities) from Voros. He has also updated the team rankings.

A look at the FIFA match points.

Top 10 results

2376 - Switzerland - Spain 1 - 0
2328 - Serbia - Germany 1 - 0
2221.56 - Argentina - Greece 2 - 0
2120.1 - South Africa - France 2 - 1
2120.1 - Mexico - France - 2 - 1
2090.88 - Chile - Switzerland 1 - 0
2075.7 - Korea Republic - Greece 2 - 0
2053.5 - Ghana - Serbia 1 - 0
2009.34 - Uruguay - Mexic 1 - 0
2009.1 - Denmark - Cameroon 2 - 1

Bottom 10 results

(losses not included)

397.8 - Mexico - South Africa 1 - 1
451.4 - Italy - New Zealand 1 - 1
451.4 - Slovakia - New Zealand 1 - 1
520.2 - Nigeria - Korea Republic 2 - 2
571.2 - Australia - Ghana 1 - 1
608.6 - Korea Republic - Nigeria 2 - 2
612 - Ghana - Australia 1 - 1
614.2 - New Zealand - Slovakia 1 - 1
622.2 - South Africa - Mexico 1 - 1
629 - England - Algeria 0 - 0

Average results - how many points a team actually received.

Top 10 averaged results

198 - Switzerland - Spain 1 - 0
179.077 - Serbia - Germany 1 - 0
157.25 - Slovenia - Algeria 1 - 0
154.565 - Uruguay - Mexic 1 - 0
153.692 - Germany - Australia 4 - 0
152.838 - Greece - Nigeria 2 - 1
140.571 - Netherlands - Denmark 2 - 0
138.848 - Argentina - Greece 2 - 0
135.681 - Brazil - Cote d'Ivoire 3 - 1
131.472 - Paraguay - Slovakia 2 - 0

Bottom 10 averaged results

15.912 - Mexico - South Africa 1 - 1
29.629 - South Africa - Mexico 1 - 1
30.43 - Korea Republic - Nigeria 2 - 2
32.211 - Ghana - Australia 1 - 1
32.513 - Nigeria - Korea Republic 2 - 2
34.079 - USA - Slovenia 2 - 2
34.723 - Italy - New Zealand 1 - 1
34.723 - Slovakia - New Zealand 1 - 1
37.389 - USA - England 1 - 1
43.938 - Australia - Ghana 1 - 1

Top 10 Elo points exchanged

53 - Switzerland - Spain 1 - 0
45 - Serbia - Germany 1 - 0
41 - Ghana - Serbia 1 - 0
41 - Mexico - France 2 - 0
41 - South Africa - France 2 - 1
40 - Korea Republic - Greece 2 - 0
35 - Uruguay - South Africa 3 - 0
35 - Uruguay - Mexico 1 - 0
34 - Argentina - Korea Republic 4 - 1
32 - Japan - Cameroon 1 - 0
32 - Greece - Nigeria 2 - 1

3 comments:

  1. where did I go wrong with my confed rankings?

    I have CONMELBOL leads with UEFA with a .93

    As it stand UEFA has 7 wins in 29
    CONMEL has 10 in 15.

    the three year average is
    UEFA: .4325
    CONMEL:.58497

    with the root:

    UEFA: .9273

    ReplyDelete
  2. I included round of 16 games. I'm sure we'll have the same values at the end of the World Cup.

    ReplyDelete
  3. @Watson: did you include games such as Netherlands-Denmark and Germany-Serbia? If so, take them out. The weighting is determined only by matches between teams of different confederations. Matches between teams of the same confederation don't count.

    ReplyDelete