Latest updates

Check the Important info page for latest updates! (2 December 2016)
TwitterLinked In

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Confederation weighting: CONMEBOL in front

More on confederation weighting factor calculation.

Before the World Cup, these were the values:

UEFA - 1
CONMEBOL - 0.98
Every other confederation - 0.85

Intermediate 2010 values without the 2010 WC results:

CONMEBOL 1
UEFA 0.98
CONCACAF 0.85 (0.79)
CAF 0.85 (0.79)
AFC 0.85 (0.78)
OFC 0.85 (0.74)

After the first round of matches (Spain - Switzerland won't count):

CONMEBOL 1
UEFA 0.97
AFC 0.85 (0.81)
CAF 0.85 (0.7717)
CONCACAF 0.85 (0.7709)
OFC 0.85 (0.68)

9 comments:

  1. Funny, I was keeping track as well. At one point AFC's multipiler was at .93

    ReplyDelete
  2. Question: how are the yearly averages determined? Taking all three years averages then adding them up and dividing by 3, or do they take all the wins from 3 years and divide it by all interconfed's for the three years?

    Also, do your averages include games not already played? I am getting different totals than you are. I have:
    CONMELBOL - 1
    UEFA - .93
    Rest - .85
    I have not put in any other matches though.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I wonder what about Australia. At WC 2006 Australia was already member of AFC (in February they played a match against Bahrain valid for AFC Asian Cup 2007 qualifying). But they have obtained the qualification as an OFC team..

    ReplyDelete
  4. Strange, my calculations are very different. With the games played until yesterday, I have the following numbers:

    CONMEBOL 1 (played: 43, won: 24, avg: 0,56)
    UEFA 0,86 (p: 87, w: 42, avg: 0,48)
    AFC 0,85 (p:33, w:8, a: 0,24)
    CAF 0,85 (p:40, w:8, a: 0,20)
    OFC 0,85 (p:5, w:1, a:0,20)
    CONCACAF 0,85 (p: 26, w:5, a: 0,19)

    With the 0,56 for the CONMEBOL as best average, if you divide 0,48 by 0,56, it's 0,857

    I don't how you can come up with UEFA having a weighting factor of 0,97

    ReplyDelete
  5. @Watson

    Yes, I've included all the group stage matches.

    So after the first round of matches:

    CONMEBOL have 23 wins from 52 games, UEFA 42 from 107 and so on.

    @jos235

    I think they were considered an OFC team since they were placed in the same group as Japan.

    @Tobcoach

    Apply the fourth root.

    ReplyDelete
  6. After Friday's matches here's what I have:

    Confed name - 3 year avg - con. multi

    CONMELBOL: .600 - 1
    UEFA: .43 - .92
    CONCACAF: .23 - .85
    AFC: .26 - .85
    CAF: .18 - .85
    OFC: .08 - .85

    ReplyDelete
  7. I'd like to place a bet on FIFA changing the formula now. Can't see CONMEBOL being that far in front.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Actually, UEFA moved up a bit. They're at 0.94, with CONMEBOL obviously still at 1. The others - 0.85.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Haakon, I agree. Even if UEFA can get the multipiler to say .96 by the end of the cup, I bet FIFA change the multipiler up a little.

    If UEFA really craps out and fall to .92 or .93 I think we may see a new ranking system all together :-)

    If Spain holds (does not include future games)
    CONMELBOL - 1
    UEFA - .93

    Rest - .85
    CONCACAF is .76

    ReplyDelete