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Wednesday, June 9, 2010

FIFA Ranking: July 2010 probable ranking (II)

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Next update: not before June 16th, 2010.

Probable May 2010 rank - Team - Probable May 2010 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1 Spain 1976 1 411
2 Brazil 1860 -1 156
3 England 1539 5 478
4 Netherlands 1450 0 308
5 Germany 1365 1 283
6 Italy 1349 -1 153
7 Argentina 1305 0 229
8 Egypt 1198 4 85
9 France 1085 0 2
10 Uruguay 1052 6 144
11 Portugal 1043 -8 -243
12 Serbia 1006 3 56
13 Chile 991 5 100
14 Croatia 974 -4 -73
15 Russia 956 -4 -59
16 Mexico 930 1 47
17 USA 928 -3 -23
18 Greece 917 -5 -47
19 Norway 902 3 -4
20 Ukraine 901 3 -5
21 Paraguay 834 10 29
22 Côte d'Ivoire 829 5 -13
23 Nigeria 827 -2 -66
24 Slovenia 826 1 -48
25 Turkey 817 4 -20
26 Australia 779 -6 -81
27 Cameroon 769 -8 -118
27 Czech Republic 769 6 -24
29 Algeria 755 1 -66
29 Gabon 742 13 55
31 Sweden 738 6 -14
32 Switzerland 737 -8 -124
33 Slovakia 734 1 -38
34 Republic of Ireland 733 7 25
35 Israel 726 -9 -124
36 Peru 725 17 148
37 Colombia 716 -2 -51
38 Denmark 710 -2 -44
39 Scotland 704 4 0
40 Romania 699 -12 -156
41 Ghana 683 -9 -117
42 Bulgaria 675 -3 -39
43 Burkina Faso 672 5 35
44 Honduras 646 -6 -90
45 Japan 642 0 -48
46 Venezuela 613 3 -16
47 Korea Republic 607 0 -41
48 Belgium 589 11 48
49 Costa Rica 579 -9 -126
50 Latvia 571 -4 -73
51 Finland 570 1 -8
52 Lithuania 560 -3 -37
53 Bolivia 556 12 71
54 Tunisia 555 1 -10
55 Mali 548 -1 -27
56 Poland 546 2 -14
57 Bosnia-Herzegovina 545 -6 -58
58 Ecuador 540 -14 -149
59 Northern Ireland 536 -3 -26
60 Austria 535 8 57
61 Benin 534 -1 4
62 Hungary 525 -5 -31
63 Cyprus 523 4 37
64 Iran 522 -3 1
65 FYR Macedonia 471 -4 -17
66 Togo 460 10 57
67 Saudi Arabia 457 -1 -27
68 Bahrain 455 1 -15
69 Uganda 448 4 17
70 Albania 446 9 49
71 Montenegro 439 -7 -52
72 Zambia 426 -1 -10
73 New Zealand 422 5 13
74 Malawi 405 12 23
74 Trinidad and Tobago 385 21 52
76 Belarus 377 6 6
77 China PR 374 7 10
78 Iceland 371 12 18
79 Mozambique 368 6 -6
80 Oman 366 11 12
80 South Africa 366 3 -18
82 Morocco 365 -12 -92
83 Jamaica 362 -2 -31
84 Wales 361 -7 -49
85 Kuwait 356 12 15
86 Angola 354 2 -23
87 Uzbekistan 352 7 -2
88 United Arab Emirates 345 13 41
89 Moldova 344 0 -28
90 El Salvador 343 -18 -109
91 Senegal 338 -16 -84
92 Syria 334 6 -9
93 Panama 323 -19 -111
94 Estonia 318 5 1
95 Armenia 318 5 7
95 Libya 305 7 9
97 Jordan 301 7 1
98 Qatar 300 -2 -51
99 Canada 285 -36 -219
100 Gambia 285 -7 -76
100 Guinea 283 -13 -96
102 Korea DPR 276 3 -1
103 Iraq 274 -23 -129
104 Thailand 273 2 -3
105 Azerbaijan 263 4 8
106 Congo 261 -3 -45
107 Cape Verde Islands 254 7 20
108 Yemen 249 4 0
109 Zimbabwe 248 1 -20
110 Georgia 237 10 20
111 Tanzania 235 -3 -26
112 Rwanda 234 -5 -35
113 Cuba 215 13 21
114 Chad 215 29 85
115 Kenya 210 -2 -33
116 Luxembourg 209 11 16
117 Faroe Islands 209 8 10
118 Guatemala 206 -4 -37
119 Guyana 204 3 -2
119 Namibia 203 -8 -48
121 Botswana 203 -5 -35
122 Singapore 201 5 5
122 Sudan 198 -4 -21
124 Suriname 187 13 34
125 Congo DR 184 -4 -30
126 Kazakhstan 179 3 1
127 Vietnam 174 -10 -52
128 Barbados 168 7 19
129 Antigua and Barbuda 167 -10 -50
130 Fiji 167 2 0
130 Haiti 160 -39 -195
132 India 159 1 -3
133 Grenada 158 -9 -39
134 Hong Kong 155 6 8
135 Swaziland 155 -4 -16
135 Tajikistan 150 0 0
137 Turkmenistan 141 2 -1
138 Indonesia 130 -1 -12
139 Sierra Leone 126 -9 -51
140 Liechtenstein 125 9 9
141 Burundi 124 3 -2
142 Malaysia 124 4 1
143 Myanmar 122 4 0
144 Madagascar 121 4 0
145 Maldives 117 -3 -12
146 Ethiopia 114 -23 -86
147 St. Kitts and Nevis 111 4 -2
148 Equatorial Guinea 110 -7 -32
149 Netherlands Antilles 108 5 5
150 Lebanon 106 10 8
151 Malta 105 6 5
152 Bangladesh 104 5 4
153 Lesotho 101 -1 -8
154 Niger 100 8 8
155 Sri Lanka 96 4 -3
156 Liberia 94 -6 -20
156 Nepal 94 5 -2
158 Eritrea 92 -3 -9
159 Bermuda 90 -25 -70
160 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 87 3 -4
161 Nicaragua 86 -6 -15
162 New Caledonia 82 -17 -44
163 Pakistan 75 2 -3
163 Vanuatu 75 -10 -33
165 Kyrgyzstan 74 3 0
166 Chinese Taipei 69 1 -6
167 Philippines 67 2 0
168 Mauritania 62 -4 -19
169 Solomon Islands 60 1 0
170 Puerto Rico 52 -4 -24
171 Palestine 43 2 9
172 Comoros 39 -1 0
173 Cayman Islands 39 0 0
173 Laos 39 0 0
173 Somalia 38 0 0
176 Samoa 37 1 0
177 Mauritius 37 -5 -3
177 Seychelles 34 1 0
179 Bahamas 34 2 0
180 Cambodia 33 5 3
180 Dominica 33 3 0
182 Belize 32 -3 -4
182 Mongolia 32 -3 -4
182 Turks and Caicos Islands 32 2 0
185 Dominican Republic 26 2 0
186 Tonga 23 0 -5
187 Brunei Darussalam 21 2 0
188 Guinea-Bissau 19 3 0
188 St. Lucia 19 3 0
188 Tahiti 19 3 0
191 British Virgin Islands 18 3 0
191 Djibouti 18 -3 -5
193 Afghanistan 17 -4 -4
193 Cook Islands 17 -12 -17
193 Guam 17 2 0
196 Macau 12 1 -2
197 Aruba 11 1 0
198 Bhutan 9 -2 -6
199 US Virgin Islands 5 0 0
200 Timor-Leste 4 0 0
201 Andorra 2 0 0
202 American Samoa 0 0 0
202 Anguilla 0 0 0
202 Central African Republic 0 0 0
202 Montserrat 0 0 0
202 Papua New Guinea 0 0 0
202 San Marino 0 0 0

4 comments:

  1. I really admire what you do with the blog. BUT in this case, this blog post was misleading. I am not up to terminology or up to which month´s results are considered, and I seriously thought these rankings might be an update from the recent friendlies game till I clicked on your links.

    This is a not a particularly "PROBABLE" ranking since you are trying to guess the results of nothing less than 63 games. The whole world cup. Which we know is always unpredictable. I can imagine you used what you had which is eloratings but these are not particular You are extrapolating the results of 63 games, the whole world cup. These results are not probable or more probable than any other. You are feeding the eloratings to these rankings, and I am sure it was a lot of work, but this is really NOT a PROBABLE ranking at all or a preview in my understanding of the sense of the words. Scientifically, if you tried to calculate an error margin to this it would be crazily high and you could not be sure of the ordering at all!

    Academical question - how accurate are eloratings to guess results anyway?

    We can predict a few things already for the future rankings - how high can any team rise. Maybe how much can any team fall. But look please don´t call this a probable ranking, it is a possible ranking, but not a probable one!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Actually, there will be 64 matches in the World Cup. Plus the Baltic Cup (3 matches), two friendlies and 4 ACN qualifiers :)

    This is the terminology used on my blog for quite some time. Sorry if it's confusing. And English is not my mother tongue - I guess you can see from most of the texts posted.

    Some people like the probable ranking/results thing, others not so much. I'm OK with it - I never expected to please everyone. Besides, this blog used the be named "Uninteresting things" :)

    I don't consider myself a scientist or an academician, it's just a football blog. If you want more scientific approaches, check Voros McCracken's blog.

    The Elo Ratings are pretty accurate - 60% - 70% if my memory doesn't play tricks on me. They are way more accurate than my predictions.

    It's not a lot of work - it's all automated. It almost takes more time to properly format the data for display.

    Thanks for your comment.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Edgar, thank you for the reply and all the work with the site. I am not a native speaker of english either!
    I am probably too much of a science geek.

    64 matches, ah, forgot about the 3rd place game. And the others games I guess won´t affect too much top ranking. Different games have different weights right?

    I got a bit of a problem about feeding eloratings as probable results because by that you are just twisting the "prediction" to reflect the eloratings. I don´t think the eloratings are that good, but this is not about that. Though got to say, I don´t think 60-70% right is actually good, because errors will propagate due to the nature of cup format, where some teams will play many more games). Second, they are very weird about ranking between confederations. But then again any ranking concept is fallible.

    I have one suggestion for something which would be interesting to me - a clear, no predictions of results involved, prediction for future FIFA ranking. We know the July one will take out some results from June 2006 (right?), that should be easy to use! But without predicting results, just taking out June 2006 results. I would find it more intuitive -teams which win and go further would go up compared to that predicted ranking. To compared with your probable ranking I would have to go check eloratings for the date you used and see who did better in relation to who. Hope the explanation of the suggestion makes any sense, even if you do not find it interesting!

    I would prefer to see a preview of July with no points assigned

    ReplyDelete
  4. @Anonymous, I don't know if you were aware, but Edgar already does something similar to that every month. Here is the latest one: FIFA Ranking: July 2010 preview (II)

    "Minimum points" is the team's next ranking if they lose all their matches. "Maximum points" is if they win all matches (playing against the hardest possible opponents, avoiding penalty shootouts).

    Hope this helps :-)

    ReplyDelete