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Friday, June 29, 2012

FIFA Ranking: July 2012 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 4 July.

Four matches left:

29/06 Yemen - Morocco (Friendly)
30/06 Central African Republic - Egypt (Continental Qualifier)
30/06 Sudan - Iraq (Friendly)
01/07 Spain - Italy (Continental Final)

This is how the points can change for these 8 teams:

L = loss, D = draw, W = win, PSO = penalty shootout.

Spain (L: 1592; PSO L: 1625; PSO W: 1658; W: 1691)
Italy (L: 1192; PSO L: 1232; PSO W: 1272; W: 1312)
Egypt (L: 618; PSO L or D: 631; PSO W: 644; W: 657)
Morocco (L: 462; D: 465; W: 471)
Iraq (L: 424; D: 428; W: 437)
Central African Republic (L: 421; PSO L or D: 462; PSO W: 503; W: 543)
Sudan (L: 325; D: 329; W: 338)
Yemen (L: 179; D: 198; W: 235)

In the table below, the values displayed for these teams are the lowest possible, thus even if they lose their totals won't drop.

Two matches have been removed from FIFA.com: Iran - Mozambique 3 - 0 (2 May 2012) and Finland - Turkey 3 - 2 (26 May 2012). I don't know the reason.

Spain will keep their top spot even if they lose against Italy in the final. Germany will be second.
Italy could climb to 3rd with a win against Spain. They will be 6th if they lose and 5th if the final goes to PSO.
Gli Azzurri will thus replace Brazil in the top 10, with A Seleção dropping to 11th. The Brazilians could have fallen to 14th, but certain EURO 2012 results went their way.

Best movers:

40 - Tahiti
27 - Bolivia
17 - Namibia

Tahiti will climb one extra spot if Yemen do not defeat Iraq.
Central African Republic will climb 36 spots to 57th with a win against Egypt.

Worst movers:

-33 - Faroe Islands
-22 - Vietnam
-20 - Gambia

Best movers in the top 50:

9 - Czech Republic and Ecuador
7 - Korea Republic
6 - Italy and Ukraine

Italy will climb 3 extra spots with a win against Spain, while Egypt will also climb a total of 9 spots with a win against Central African Republic.

Worst movers in the top 50:

-8 - Republic of Ireland, Ghana, USA and Scotland
-7 - Venezuela
-6 - Brazil

Six teams will improve their best ever ranking:

Libya (40th - 42nd in June 2012)
Haiti (63rd - 66th in November 2007)
Central African Republic (82nd - 90th in July 2011)
Belize (131st - 133rd in January 2012)
Afghanistan (162nd - 164th in May 2011)
American Samoa (183rd - 186th in December 2011)

Libya will climb one extra spot if Egypt do not defeat Central African Republic avoiding PSO.
Haiti will climb one extra spot if Central African Republic do not defeat Egypt.
Central Africa Republic will climb to 57th if they defeat Egypt.

Aruba will return to their best ever ranking - 164th - first achieved in February 1994.

England could also return to their best ever ranking (4th - happened 4 times, not twice as this article claims), if Italy don't defeat Spain after 120 minutes.

Four teams will return to their worst ever rankings:

Indonesia (153rd - first happened in December 2006)
Singapore (158th - first happened in April 2012)
Laos (190th - first happened in June 2008)
Macau (199th - first happened in March 2012)

Seven teams will drop to new lows:

Brazil (11th - 8th in August 1993)
USA (36th - 35th in October 1997)
Saudi Arabia (101st - 98th in October 2011)
Myanmar (180th - 177th in March 2012)
Swaziland (182nd - 180th in December 2011)
Cambodia (192nd - 188th in December 2005)
Bhutan (205th - 203rd in June 2012)

USA will drop to their worst ever ranking on their national day.

Israel (their worst ranking is 81st in June 2012) will drop to 82nd if Iraq defeat Sudan and Egypt defeat Central African Republic avoiding PSO. If only one of these happens, they will be 81st.

Honduras and El Salvador out of CONCACAF's top 5, replaced by Costa Rica (4th) and Haiti (5th).

Argentina replace Brazil as 2nd in CONMEBOL.

Tahiti jump from 7th to 2nd in OFC, after winning the OFC Nations Cup. Samoa out of the top 5.

Portugal and Italy replace Netherlands and Croatia in the European top 5. Italy could climb to 3rd with a win against Spain.


July 2012 rank - Team - July 2012 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Spain 1592 0 136
2 Germany 1502 1 214
3 Uruguay 1297 -1 5
4 England 1294 2 149
5 Portugal 1213 5 217
6 Italy 1192 6 215
7 Argentina 1095 0 -42
8 Netherlands 1079 -4 -155
9 Croatia 1050 -1 -3
10 Denmark 1017 -1 -2
11 Brazil 1012 -6 -143
12 Greece 1003 3 50
13 Russia 981 0 6
14 France 980 0 16
15 Chile 961 -4 -33
16 Côte d'Ivoire 939 0 -4
17 Sweden 909 0 -1
18 Czech Republic 854 9 83
19 Mexico 832 0 -57
20 Japan 829 3 7
21 Switzerland 828 0 -40
22 Colombia 814 -2 -66
23 Australia 807 1 -13
24 Norway 780 2 -7
25 Paraguay 772 -3 -61
26 Republic of Ireland 762 -8 -145
27 Ecuador 752 9 59
28 Korea Republic 740 7 21
29 Turkey 735 4 3
30 Bosnia-Herzegovina 729 -1 -27
31 Hungary 716 0 -19
32 Peru 712 5 24
33 Ghana 707 -8 -111
34 Slovenia 706 -4 -36
35 Algeria 693 -3 -41
36 USA 687 -8 -80
37 Serbia 675 -3 -50
38 Wales 658 0 0
39 Libya 655 3 47
40 Mali 650 3 49
41 Zambia 648 2 47
42 Tunisia 627 4 36
43 Slovakia 626 -4 -23
44 Gabon 624 5 38
45 Ukraine 621 7 49
46 Egypt 618 2 30
47 Venezuela 615 -7 1
48 Panama 612 -2 21
49 Scotland 611 -8 0
50 Iran 581 -5 -15
50 Montenegro 581 0 0
52 Romania 580 0 8
53 Belgium 564 1 0
54 Poland 560 8 42
55 Armenia 559 -4 -20
56 Estonia 554 1 26
57 Costa Rica 541 8 34
58 Nigeria 525 2 5
59 Cameroon 520 5 5
60 Austria 517 -2 -7
61 Senegal 506 2 -11
62 Haiti 503 9 13
63 Honduras 496 -8 -54
63 Jamaica 496 -3 -24
65 Sierra Leone 488 -6 -35
65 Uzbekistan 488 1 -15
67 El Salvador 487 -12 -63
68 Canada 474 9 17
68 China PR 474 5 -7
68 South Africa 474 0 -25
71 Latvia 466 5 7
72 Morocco 462 -2 -29
73 Finland 458 2 -6
74 Albania 448 5 -3
74 Guinea 448 -7 -54
76 Belarus 447 -7 -50
77 Benin 446 -5 -43
78 Cape Verde Islands 441 -1 -16
79 Trinidad and Tobago 432 3 7
80 Israel 427 1 0
81 Iraq 424 -7 -53
82 Central African Republic 421 11 55
83 Bolivia 419 27 107
84 Jordan 417 -4 -12
85 Uganda 409 9 46
86 Angola 407 -2 -9
87 Burkina Faso 405 -1 -2
88 Guatemala 401 -3 -11
89 Korea DPR 386 0 11
90 Lithuania 376 -2 -4
91 Congo 375 -8 -47
92 Bulgaria 373 -2 0
93 Kuwait 370 -6 -13
93 Malawi 370 14 46
95 New Zealand 366 5 25
96 Oman 358 1 9
97 Georgia 357 -2 -2
98 Qatar 356 -7 -16
98 Togo 356 0 13
100 Zimbabwe 347 6 18
101 Saudi Arabia 339 -9 -30
102 Northern Ireland 336 1 0
103 Bahrain 331 -8 -28
103 FYR Macedonia 331 -2 -7
105 Antigua and Barbuda 326 0 -4
106 Sudan 325 -5 -13
107 Mozambique 316 10 26
108 Azerbaijan 308 4 8
109 Guyana 304 -5 -28
110 Luxembourg 303 11 20
111 Equatorial Guinea 302 3 4
112 St. Kitts and Nevis 301 2 3
113 Botswana 296 3 1
114 Congo DR 291 13 34
114 Niger 291 8 12
116 United Arab Emirates 287 3 3
117 Bermuda 281 -8 -37
117 Namibia 281 17 35
119 Ethiopia 273 11 24
120 Liberia 272 4 -5
120 Vietnam 272 -22 -71
122 Cyprus 266 3 0
123 Chad 262 -11 -38
124 Tajikistan 258 5 4
125 Kenya 256 -14 -47
125 Rwanda 256 -6 -28
127 Tanzania 253 12 39
128 Gambia 251 -20 -69
129 Iceland 250 2 2
130 Dominican Republic 247 3 0
131 Belize 242 4 6
132 Sao Tome e Principe 240 -14 -48
132 Suriname 240 -4 -15
132 Syria 240 -6 -23
135 Thailand 235 1 1
136 Burundi 234 -5 -14
137 Turkmenistan 223 1 4
138 Tahiti 214 41 128
139 Moldova 213 1 1
140 Puerto Rico 210 -3 -14
141 Nicaragua 209 0 0
142 Grenada 204 2 -2
143 New Caledonia 200 12 50
144 Lebanon 197 -1 -10
145 Malta 196 2 1
145 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 196 1 0
147 Kazakhstan 195 -6 -14
148 Yemen 179 11 38
149 Liechtenstein 177 -1 0
150 Cuba 171 -5 -26
151 Bangladesh 160 1 3
152 Philippines 157 -3 -7
153 Indonesia 156 -2 -3
154 Palestine 154 -1 1
155 Faroe Islands 149 -33 -130
155 Nepal 149 -6 -15
157 Malaysia 139 -3 -12
158 Curacao 138 2 1
158 Singapore 138 -1 -5
160 Hong Kong 132 -2 -10
161 Fiji 130 0 -3
162 Afghanistan 122 6 8
163 India 121 1 0
164 Aruba 120 1 0
164 Maldives 120 1 0
166 Lesotho 119 4 10
167 Madagascar 115 -4 -13
168 Vanuatu 104 3 1
169 Guinea-Bissau 103 0 -8
170 Barbados 100 8 13
171 Bahamas 99 -9 -33
172 Dominica 95 1 0
173 Samoa 93 -17 -56
174 Solomon Islands 92 9 17
175 Tonga 87 1 -1
176 Chinese Taipei 86 -9 -29
177 US Virgin Islands 85 5 7
178 Cayman Islands 72 7 0
178 Pakistan 72 3 -10
180 Myanmar 67 -6 -27
181 Sri Lanka 64 3 -10
182 Swaziland 63 -3 -23
183 American Samoa 61 3 0
184 Mongolia 55 -8 -33
185 Comoros 54 2 0
186 St. Lucia 52 2 0
187 Papua New Guinea 46 6 12
187 Seychelles 46 2 -2
189 Eritrea 45 1 0
190 Laos 44 -18 -52
191 Somalia 43 0 0
192 Cambodia 40 -17 -53
193 Mauritius 38 -1 1
194 Guam 32 0 0
195 Cook Islands 25 0 -3
196 Djibouti 24 1 1
196 Kyrgyzstan 24 0 0
198 Andorra 15 1 0
199 British Virgin Islands 13 1 0
199 Macau 13 -1 -4
201 Brunei Darussalam 5 1 0
202 Anguilla 4 -1 -5
202 Mauritania 4 1 0
204 Timor-Leste 2 1 0
205 Bhutan 0 -2 -4
205 Montserrat 0 1 0
205 San Marino 0 1 0
205 Turks and Caicos Islands 0 1 0

28 comments:

  1. What happened to Finland points? 480 or 458?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Finland - Turkey 3 - 2 has been removed from FIFA.com.

      Delete
  2. "USA will drop to their worst ever ranking on their national day."

    This pleases me. Not because I have anything against the US, but because I've heard people calling for Hadgson to be sacked and replaced with Klinsmann. He's been put into their minds due to his presence as a pundit in the Euro. But also I've heard stories of how he's got the USA playing great football, and how much better he' be than England. Utter nonsense. They've probably seen the destruction of Scotland, if that, and nothing else. Klinsmann is making Bob Bradley look like a top class coach, Klinsmann's USA is getting beat like a drum. Yes he's tried to play expansive football, and it hasn't gotten him anywhere. I honestly think there's a chance that the US won't qualify to Brazil. A small one, becaue I would be surprised if they finished any lower than 4th in the hex, and I think they could handle Oceania's representative, especially with New Zealand's terrible form.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. *how much better he'd be for England*

      Delete
    2. On second thoughts, maybe I was being harsh. I do honestly believe they were better under Bradley, but I was looking at his results, and he's actually raised USA's ELO rank by 7pts in his time there.

      Not being beaten like a drum as I said earlier anyway. They've won some matches.

      Delete
  3. If you take a look to the way the points are build up, you could analyse the form of some teams by looking at their points in the last timeframe. Sao Tome e Principe score 100% of their points in the last 12 months, which counts for 50% of the total points.Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea And Andorra did the same thing.

    Looking at the top-countries, Spain scores 46,5%, Germany 54,5%, Uruguay 65,3%, England 54,3% and Italy 58,6%

    So it looks Spain has a lesser form than Italy, and therefor Italy is my slight favorite for the Euro2012 final.

    And Holland? Well, Holland only scored 24,5% of their points in the last 12 months, which can be compared to countries like Montenegro and Georgia.

    What this say? Nothing really, is fun to look at those statistics. Same applies on the next one.
    What if no FIFA 'A'-matches were to be playes in the next 12 months, what would the FIFA-ranking look like?

    Spain would still be the undisputed number 1, and Germany number 2. Portugal would be the new number 3, followed by Italy. England would be 5th, Czech Republic 6th, Greece 7th, Sweden 8th, France 9th and Uruguay 10th.

    Argentina would fall to 13th, Netherlands to 15th, Brazil 16th and Chile 18th. The decline of the Dutch would start in November, when they would fall outside the top 10.

    Thank God there will be 'A'-matches the coming months, so that everyone has the opportunity to improve (or destroy) their rankings.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I really dislike the 100/50/30/20 ratio. It's too extreme having the last year worth the same as all 3 years before that combined.

      I'd like to see what a 100/75/50/25 ratio would look like.

      Or what about 100/100/50/50? International football is on a 2 year cycle.

      Delete
    2. I will calculate those rankings tonight, and post them here.

      Delete
    3. How do you do that? Do you have a database you can tweak the percentages for or something?

      I'm actually liking my 100/100/50/50 idea the most now. It seems both the fairest and by far the simplest.

      Delete
    4. Yes , I have a database with all the results and corresponding points . And with that I can calculate all the weighting factors. I wanted to post it yesterday but I didn't have time. Maybe tonight , for now I'm watching the prologue of the Tour de France.

      Delete
    5. I've made some tables with different weightings. The first table uses the same timeframes as FIFA, but the weighting is the same, so every timeframe counts 100%:

      1 Spain 3420
      2 Germany 2827
      3 Netherlands 2724
      4 Brazil 2506
      5 England 2504
      6 Uruguay 2358
      7 Portugal 2196
      8 Argentina 2174
      9 Italy 2172
      10 Greece 2001

      Second table is with same timeframe as FIFA, but with a 100-100-50-50 weighting:

      1 Spain 2554
      2 Germany 2150
      3 England 1888
      4 Netherlands 1872
      5 Portugal 1713
      6 Italy 1711
      7 Uruguay 1709
      8 Brazil 1628
      9 Argentina 1550
      10 Croatia 1537

      Third table: same timeframe as FIFA, with 100-75-50-25 weighting:

      1 Spain 2136
      2 Germany 1861
      3 England 1588
      4 Uruguay 1541
      5 Netherlands 1498
      6 Portugal 1496
      7 Italy 1447
      8 Argentina 1351
      9 Croatia 1296
      10 Brazil 1292

      And finally, a table with 4 timeframes, same weighting as FIFA (100-50-30-20) but the timeframes are not 1 year, but 6 months. So games from July 4th 2010 onwards are taken into account:

      1 Spain 1696
      2 Germany 1569
      3 Italy 1325
      4 England 1301
      5 Portugal 1275
      6 Croatia 1027
      7 France 995
      8 Russia 982
      9 Sweden 972
      10 Uruguay 965

      In the last table, Argentina are 15th, Netherlands 21st, Brazil 23rd

      Delete
    6. Very interesting. Pleasantly surprised to see England do so well on all the examples. I'm also glad you included full 100% as I've toyed with that idea too. I generally dismissed the idea though after what's happened to Egypt, going from champs to chumps in the blink of an eye. They'd be feeding a lot of undeserved points to the teams that beat them under full 100%. International football fluctuates more than club football I feel. ALso, club football, at least UEFA club football, has a ranking which only takes results into account, so such a thing wouldn't be a problem, it's somewhat akin to the UEFA coefficient.

      I'm looking forward to England finally taking that elusive third place and the subsequent reaction to that place in August. It will be fun, coming right after 4th.

      Psssst. We're not so bad you know...

      Delete
    7. I know, Lorric, I know. And that is being explained further by another statistical fact.

      If you look at all the countries that played 20 or more "A"-international games the past 4 years, England has the best points per game-ratio. England played 45 games the past 4 years and has 1294 points, which makes a point per game ratio of 28,76. The top 10:

      Pl. Country FIFA-Pt. Games Average
      1 England 1294 45 28,76
      2 Spain 1691 61 27,72
      3 Germany 1502 55 27,31
      4 Libya 655 24 27,29
      5 Croatia 1050 40 26,25
      6 Uruguay 1297 51 25,43
      7 Portugal 1213 48 25,27
      8 Russia 981 39 25,15
      9 Italy 1192 53 22,49
      10 Cape Verde Islands 441 20 22,05

      Delete
    8. That's very nice, but it's not fair. Spain are the champions of everything, but because they've played so many games it dilutes their average. More games into a system that runs on averages is unfair.

      For instance, imagine if France decided their team was not fit to compete in internationals anymore until the ego problems are sorted, and withdrew from international competition, resurfacing for the first time as Euro 2016 hosts. Unless they did terribly, their points per game average would be huge.

      Delete
  4. Interesting proposal Lorric. Biggest downside I can think of is the over inflation of CONMEBOL teams after Copa America as both that and the World Cup would be at 100% value.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Compared to the inflation after every tournament we have now, it would at least be an improvement. They'd be artifically deflated before every World Cup, too.

      Best possible illustration: New Zealand are going up in the rankings after losing to a micronation.

      Delete
    2. It would have no impact on seedings though. And there are plenty of quirky happenings like that in the current rankings, which is why people see them as a joke. Way too much drastic change and seemingly inexplicable change.

      Delete
    3. Just to clarify, the European Championship would still be at 100% when the World Cup draw was made.

      Delete
    4. Oh wait, I see the potential problem. But I still don't think it would impact unfairly on South America though, as they'd still have their mass of qualifiers before the World Cup. Essentially a bigger, better Copa America, with the slighlty lower bonus multiplier offset by more games than both competitions put together and no minnows to drag averages down.

      Delete
    5. Lorric: The World Cup draw will be made in November 2012, so the Euro will be at 50%.

      Delete
    6. I take it you mean 2013.

      Under my proposal of 2 years being worth 100% it would be 100%.

      Delete
  5. there are 7 teams (only the ones which played at least 3 matches) left which did not lose in 2012:

    Rnk Team 3/2/1/0 ave
    -----------------------------------
    1 Tahiti 5/0/0/0 3.0
    2 Argentina 3/0/0/0 3.0
    3 Spain 8/1/1/0 2.7
    4 Côte d'Ivoire 9/0/3/0 2.5
    5 Austria 2/0/1/0 2.3
    6 Romania 2/0/2/0 2.0
    7 Uruguay 1/0/3/0 1.5

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. sorry, I missed Hungary:

      Rnk Team 3/2/1/0 ave
      -----------------------------------
      1 Tahiti 5/0/0/0 3.0
      2 Argentina 3/0/0/0 3.0
      3 Spain 8/1/1/0 2.7
      4 Côte d'Ivoire 9/0/3/0 2.5
      5 Austria 2/0/1/0 2.3
      6 Romania 2/0/2/0 2.0
      7 Hungary 1/0/2/0 1.7
      8 Uruguay 1/0/3/0 1.5

      Slovenia (only 2 Matches yet) can kick out Romania in August...

      Delete
    2. Slovenia kicked out Romania, but there are still 8 teams left:

      Rnk Team 3/2/1/0 ave
      -----------------------------------
      1 Tahiti 5/0/0/0 3.0
      2 Argentina 4/0/0/0 3.0
      3 Spain 9/1/1/0 2.7
      4 Austria 3/0/1/0 2.5
      5 Côte d'Ivoire 9/0/4/0 2.4
      6 Slovenia 1/0/2/0 1.7
      7 Hungary 1/0/3/0 1.5
      8 Uruguay 1/0/4/0 1.4

      9/11 can bring massive changes:
      Austria - Germany
      Norway - Slovenia
      Hungary - Netherlands

      Delete
  6. I see you there Edgar:

    http://worldsport.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/04/are-fifas-world-rankings-fit-for-purpose/

    :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, Alex Thomas a bit surprised by England's ranking :)

      Delete
  7. The final preview for the ranking of August isn't hard to do. Only four matches scheduled so far, with South Sudan making an entrance with a game against Uganda on July 11th.

    ReplyDelete
  8. @Lorric

    Yes, Alex needed some quotes from me and he got them through John Sinnott :)

    @Tobcoach

    You're right - but the blog doesn't come first in my list of priorities.

    ReplyDelete