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Wednesday, October 14, 2009

2010 World Cup: Seeding formula based on current standings (12 October 2009)

Seeded teams for the 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa using the 2006 FIFA World Cup seeding formula (see Wikipedia).

Qualified teams determined using the current standings (as of October 12th) and the FIFA rankings (the November 2009 ranking - computed as if no more matches would be played between today and November 20th).

Portugal/Costa Rica/Uruguay replace Croatia/Honduras/Ecuador.

Norway miss the UEFA playoffs as worst runner-ups (see Wikipedia).

Portugal replace France as seed.

Rank in the seeding table - Country - Total - Performance points - FIFA Ranking Points
 1 Brazil         59.7 29.3 30.3
2 Germany 59.3 30.3 29.0
3 Italy 56.7 27.3 29.3
4 Spain 56.0 25.3 30.7
5 England 51.7 26.3 25.3
6 Argentina 49.3 21.0 28.3
7 Portugal 47.3 22.3 25.0
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8 France 47.0 23.3 23.7
9 Netherlands 43.0 14.7 28.3
10 Mexico 37.7 19.3 18.3
11 USA 35.0 13.7 21.3
12 Paraguay 31.0 11.7 19.3
13 Switzerland 31.0 15.3 15.7
14 Russia 25.3 3.0 22.3
15 Ghana 25.3 13.3 12.0
16 Korea Republic 24.3 15.7 8.7
17 Japan 24.0 13.3 10.7
18 Cameroon 23.7 3.0 20.7
19 Australia 22.0 11.3 10.7
20 Serbia 21.3 5.3 16.0
21 Denmark 20.3 7.7 12.7
22 Greece 20.0 0.0 20.0
23 Côte d'Ivoire 19.7 6.0 13.7
24 Uruguay 18.3 2.7 15.7
25 Tunisia 14.7 8.7 6.0
26 Costa Rica 14.0 8.3 5.7
27 Chile 10.7 0.0 10.7
28 Slovakia 6.0 0.0 6.0
29 Algeria 5.7 0.0 5.7
30 South Africa 5.7 3.0 2.7
31 Bahrain 2.3 0.0 2.3
32 Korea DPR 1.3 0.0 1.3
Top 7 + South Africa seeded.

Pot 1: Argentina, Brazil, England, Germany, Italy, Portugal, South Africa, Spain
Pot 2: Denmark, France, Greece, Netherlands, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Switzerland
Pot 3: Australia, Bahrain, Costa Rica, Japan, Korea DPR, Korea Republic, Mexico, USA
Pot 4: Algeria, Cameroon, Chile, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Paraguay, Tunisia, Uruguay

Possible draw (using random.org):

Group A: South Africa, Denmark, Costa Rica, Paraguay
Group B: Brazil, Netherlands, Mexico, Ghana
Group C: Spain, Greece, Korea DPR, Côte d'Ivoire
Group D: Germany, Slovakia, Korea Republic, Chile
Group E: Argentina, Serbia, Japan, Algeria
Group F: Italy, Russia, USA, Cameroon
Group G: England, Switzerland, Bahrain, Tunisia
Group H: Portugal, France, Australia, Uruguay

3 comments:

  1. Does doing well in the qualifying matches, such as Brazil being number one, give the team any benefit going into the World Cup?

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  2. Top seeded nations are in a 'pot' amongst themselves. Since each World Cup Final group contains one team from each pot, a top-seeded nation like Brazil theoretically will not face off against another top seed in group play. However, because no group can contain more than 2 European teams (13 in the finals!), the pots get a little 'creative.' In this example, the European teams are crammed into the first two pots. This means that the ranking order doesn't quite reflect the pot placement.

    ReplyDelete