Latest updates

Check the Important info page for latest updates! (23 September 2016)
TwitterLinked In

Monday, October 12, 2009

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding for UEFA teams (12 October 2009)

The preliminary draw for the 2010 FIFA World Cup took place on November 25th, 2007 and used the November 2007 FIFA ranking.

Assumptions:

- UEFA will again have 13 spots
- UEFA will again use the system with 9 groups
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- FIFA will hold the draw in November 2011

The November 2011 FIFA ranking will include matches played between November 2007 and November 2011. We already have the "0.2" part (matches played between November 2007 and November 2008) - that's basically 10% of the final ranking and a bit of the "0.3" part (matches played between November 2008 and November 2009). A lot can and will change before November 2011 as there are many matches to be played involving European teams: 2010 FIFA World Cup qualifiers, 2010 FIFA World Cup, EURO 2012 qualifiers and plenty of friendlies.

UEFA will only use the national team coefficient for the European Championships draws (qualifying and final tournament).

This is the November 2011 ranking (for UEFA only) using matches played up to and including October 11th, 2009 and matches scheduled up to November 2009 (only those on fifa.com).

The "0.3" part is computed this way: points gained / (number of matches played + scheduled).

Greece/Czech Republic replace Turkey/Slovakia in the 2nd pot.
Austria replace Northern Ireland in 3rd pot.
Belgium replace Lithuania in the 4th pot.
Moldova replace Luxembourg in the 5th pot.

Rank - Previous rank - Team - Total points
 1  1 Spain               409
2 2 Netherlands 331
3 4 Croatia 260
4 3 Russia 255
5 7 Germany 254
6 8 Switzerland 244
7 6 Italy 240
8 5 England 232
9 9 Denmark 230
-----------------------------
10 10 Serbia 226
11 11 Portugal 221
12 13 Ukraine 220
13 13 France 203
14 16 Israel 201
15 20 Greece 197
16 16 Republic of Ireland 190
16 23 Czech Republic 190
18 12 Bulgaria 187
-----------------------------
19 25 Bosnia-Herzegovina 179
20 13 Turkey 177
20 27 Slovenia 177
22 18 Slovakia 171
23 21 Norway 168
24 22 Latvia 167
25 19 Sweden 162
26 24 Romania 153
27 31 Austria 149
-----------------------------
28 26 Northern Ireland 145
29 33 Montenegro 129
30 29 Poland 128
31 28 Scotland 124
32 36 Finland 120
32 34 Belarus 120
34 39 Belgium 114
35 30 Hungary 112
36 35 FYR Macedonia 104
-----------------------------
37 32 Lithuania 101
38 43 Cyprus 97
39 37 Albania 84
40 38 Wales 82
41 40 Iceland 73
42 41 Armenia 72
43 44 Faroe Islands 68
44 42 Estonia 64
45 46 Moldova 55
-----------------------------
46 45 Luxembourg 54
47 47 Kazakhstan 51
48 48 Georgia 35
49 50 Azerbaijan 33
50 49 Malta 27
51 51 Liechtenstein 16
52 52 Andorra 0
52 52 San Marino 0

6 comments:

  1. Am I correct that matches through October 10 (not September 12) are taken into account? Same for CONCACAF?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Yes, you are correct. It's fixed now. Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Can you please clarify something for me?

    When you say matches played between November '07 - November '08, what's the cutoff point?

    Does the 0.2 part include matches in November '07, and the 0.3 part includes matches in November '08, or is the cutoff the date the FIFA rankings were published.

    I calculated the 0.2 and 0.3 points for Bosnia but I can't come up with the same figure as you :(

    ReplyDelete
  4. I think the November 2011 rankings will be published on Nov 18th, 2011.

    Maybe it's my error - I can't be always right :)

    ReplyDelete
  5. So you're using November 18th as the cutoff?

    Please let me know if I'm doing this right.

    0.2 Part for Bosnia (November 07 - November 08)

    1. November '07 - lost to Turkey
    2. January '08 - lost to Japan
    3. March '08 - drew with Macedonia (141 points)
    4. June '08 - beat Azerbaijan (189 points)
    5. August '08 - lost to Bulgaria
    6. September '08 - lost to Spain
    7. September '08 - beat Estonia (540 points)
    8. October '08 - lost to Turkey
    9. October '08 - beat Armenia (742.5 points)

    That comes out to 1612.5 points, divided by 9 games, multiplied by 0.2 rounds to 36.

    0.3 part for Bosnia

    1. November '08 - beat Slovenia (426)
    2. March '08 - beat Belgium (1132.5)
    3. April '08 - beat Belgium (1132.5)
    4. June '08 - drew with Uzbekistan (105.5)
    5. June '08 - beat Oman (306)
    6. August '08 - lost to Iran
    7. September '08 - beat Armenia (562.5)
    8. September '08 - drew with Turkey (432)
    9. October '08 - beat Estonia (645)
    10. October '08 - lost to Spain

    So that comes out to around 4742.5, divided by 10 matches, multiplied by 0.3 rounds to 142.

    I'm still off by one, and it doesn't look like a rounding error. I probably miscalculated one of the game scores, right?

    Thanks again, Edgar, this site is awesome.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Azerbaijan 201 points, not 189.

    Uzbekistan 112.85, no 105.5.
    Oman 333, not 306.
    Turkey 432.5, not 432.

    Some games were added earlier/later than you assumed, that's why you used a different ranking for Bosnia-Herzegovina's opponent.

    ReplyDelete