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Friday, February 11, 2011

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding for CAF (11 February 2011)

Next update: 1 April 2011

Assumptions:

- CAF will again have 5 spots
- CAF will keep the current qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- CAF will choose the July 2011 ranking for seeding

The July 2011 FIFA ranking will include matches played between July 2007 and July 2011. We already have 50% of the formula. Things can still change as there are many matches to be played involving African teams: CAN 2012 qualifiers and plenty of friendlies.
This the July 2011 ranking (for CAF only) using matches played up to and including February 10th, 2011 and matches scheduled up to July 2011 (only those on fifa.com).

The "1.0" part is computed this way: points gained / (number of matches played + scheduled).

Senegal and Libya replace Guinea and Benin in the first pot.
Central African Republic replace Niger in the second pot.
Guinea-Bissau replace Rwanda in the third pot.

Best movers:

7 - Senegal
4 - Libya
3 - Central African Republic and Guinea-Bissau

Worst movers:

-4 - Botswana, Guinea, Benin and Uganda
-3 - Sudan
-2 - Angola and Tanzania

Most points gained:

68 - Egypt
57 - Senegal
56 - Cameroon

Most points lost:

-55 - Botswana
-53 - Sudan
-43 - Guinea

Rank - Previous rank - Team - Total points
 1  2 Egypt                    709
2 1 Côte d'Ivoire 701
3 4 Ghana 576
4 6 Cameroon 550
4 3 Burkina Faso 550
6 5 Gabon 535
7 8 Nigeria 485
8 9 Tunisia 474
9 11 Algeria 431
10 17 Senegal 427
11 7 Botswana 423
12 16 Libya 422
----------------------------------
13 15 South Africa 412
14 10 Guinea 402
15 14 Malawi 387
16 12 Benin 380
17 13 Uganda 371
18 19 Cape Verde Islands 351
19 18 Mali 349
20 22 Morocco 325
21 20 Zambia 321
22 23 Mozambique 314
23 26 Central African Republic 263
24 21 Sudan 262
----------------------------------
25 24 Niger 259
26 27 Gambia 257
27 25 Angola 256
28 28 Togo 238
29 30 Sierra Leone 217
30 31 Zimbabwe 212
31 29 Tanzania 211
32 32 Congo 206
33 35 Congo DR 182
34 33 Kenya 173
35 34 Ethiopia 149
36 39 Guinea-Bissau 142
----------------------------------
37 36 Rwanda 138
38 37 Chad 127
39 38 Burundi 113
40 40 Namibia 104
41 41 Madagascar 92
42 44 Equatorial Guinea 83
43 42 Liberia 77
44 43 Swaziland 68
45 45 Lesotho 44
46 46 Mauritania 32
47 47 Eritrea 29
48 48 Somalia 23
----------------------------------
49 49 Comoros 19
50 50 Djibouti 12
51 51 Mauritius 10
52 52 Seychelles 7
53 53 Sao Tome e Principe 0

6 comments:

  1. Wha...?

    Where do all Ghana's points go?Surely they should be in front easily with the combination of their World Cup and Acon performances?

    I'm sure you're right, but I can't understand why they're so far behind the top two.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Good work my freind ...

    but you have to change there is a smalll mistake :)

    you wrote

    This the July 2011 ranking (for CAF only) using matches played up to and including January 10th, 2011 and matches scheduled up to July 2011 (only those on fifa.com).


    and the crocte is

    including february 10th not January 10th

    ReplyDelete
  3. @Lorric

    The July ranking will be published on July 31st, thus the 2010 World Cup drop to a different time frame.

    @budejaja

    Thanks Hussein! Fixed now.

    ReplyDelete
  4. @ Edgar

    Hmmmm. I am still mystified as to why the Ivory Coast has such a huge lead over Ghana, when Ghana surpassed them in both the World Cup and the ACON though.

    ReplyDelete
  5. @Lorric

    The last time frame (July 2010 - July 2011) is the difference maker. Côte d'Ivoire have 272 points, while Ghana only 124.

    Ghana lost to South Africa and they also have three remaining matches (counted as losses)
    Drew Saudi Arabia in a friendly and Sudan in an ACN qualifier.
    Won against Swaziland in an ACN qualifier and Togo in a friendly.

    Côte d'Ivoire lost to Poland and have only two remaining matches (counted as losses)
    Won both their ACN qualifiers (Burundi and Rwanda)
    Won two friendlies (against Italy and Mali).

    ReplyDelete
  6. @ Edgar

    It seems really, really stupid to me not to factor the results of the World Cup at 100% for the draw for qualifying to a WORLD CUP. They should use the ranking for the previous month to seed the teams.

    However, that does explain what happened to Ghana. So thanks.

    ReplyDelete