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Friday, July 8, 2011

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: CAF pots (8 July 2011)

Congratulations Namibia! They got the three points against Malawi and have jumped to the fourth pot (first pot in the preliminary round draw) at the expense of Guinea-Bissau.

Only one match remaining: Iran - Madagascar, but Madagascar are locked in the fourth pot, so this is the final version.

The pots look like this:

Preliminary round:

Pot 1: Mozambique, Congo DR, Togo, Liberia, Tanzania, Kenya, Congo, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Burundi, Madagascar, Namibia
Pot 2: Guinea-Bissau, Equatorial Guinea, Chad, Swaziland, Comoros, Lesotho, Eritrea, Somalia, Djibouti, Mauritius, Seychelles, Sao Tome e Principe

Group stage draw:

Pot 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Cameroon, Algeria, Tunisia
Pot 2: Gabon, Libya, Morocco, Guinea, Malawi, Botswana, Zambia, Uganda, Mali, Cape Verde Islands
Pot 3: Benin, Zimbabwe, Central African Republic, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Niger, Gambia, Angola

The winners of the first two match-ups from the preliminary round (in the order of the draw) will be placed in Pot 3. The other winners will be placed in Pot 4.

Here's the July 2011 FIFA ranking for CAF teams participating in the 2014 FIFA World Cup preliminaries:

Rank - Team - Points
 1 Côte d'Ivoire            922
 2 Egypt                    738
 3 Ghana                    696
 4 Burkina Faso             661
 5 Nigeria                  635
 6 Senegal                  619
 7 South Africa             597
 8 Cameroon                 595
 9 Algeria                  575
10 Tunisia                  553
-------------------------------
11 Gabon                    517
12 Libya                    494
12 Morocco                  494
14 Guinea                   474
15 Botswana                 440
16 Malawi                   439
17 Zambia                   436
18 Uganda                   417
19 Mali                     416
20 Cape Verde Islands       397
-------------------------------
21 Benin                    380
21 Zimbabwe                 380
23 Central African Republic 370
24 Sierra Leone             348
25 Sudan                    333
26 Niger                    331
27 Gambia                   329
27 Angola                   329
-------------------------------
29 Mozambique               327
30 Congo DR                 240
31 Togo                     238
32 Liberia                  233
33 Tanzania                 231
34 Congo                    206
35 Kenya                    204
36 Rwanda                   190
37 Ethiopia                 169
38 Namibia                  168
39 Burundi                  164
40 Madagascar               144
-------------------------------
41 Guinea-Bissau            142
42 Equatorial Guinea        131
43 Chad                     127
44 Swaziland                 93
45 Comoros                   80
46 Lesotho                   44
47 Eritrea                   29
48 Somalia                   23
49 Djibouti                  12
50 Mauritius                 10
51 Seychelles                 7
52 Sao Tome e Principe        0

7 comments:

  1. Sorry to post this here, but theres no need for a CONMEBOL post.

    How big of an impact will Brasil not having any competitive games for two years impact their ranking? Obviously you can't predict that far into the future, but could you guestimate how many ranking points they will have going into the Confed cup with say a handful of average value friendly wins for two years?

    ReplyDelete
  2. This is only a rough estimation:

    In May 2013, Brazil will have

    - about 200 points from the 0.2 time frame (which includes the Confed Cup 2009),

    - about 190 points from the 0.3 time frame (which includes the World Cup 2010),

    - They made about 430 points average in the last 12 months, which include the Copa America plus several friendlies. Take that as an estimation for the 0.5 time frame in May 2013, i. e. 215 points from that time frame.

    - They made about 340 points average from their last 14 friendlies. Take that as an estimation for the 1.0 time frame in May 2013.

    So that makes 200 + 190 + 215 + 340 = 945 points.

    In May 2009, Czech Republic was 12th with 968 points, while Greece was 13th with 927 points.

    So we might expect Brazil to drop to 900+x points and to a sub-top-ten position, but still in the top 20.

    ReplyDelete
  3. So a new formula on the cards then. Surely they can't let that farce continue.

    ReplyDelete
  4. @Nando - I think you need to look at the June ranking, not May.

    @CWY2190

    Based on their friendly results in the last 4 years, I'd go with 995 points in June 2013 - still a sub-top-ten position as Nando said.

    @Haakon

    Why? See the penultimate question in the FIFA Ranking FAQ (PDF document on FIFA.com).

    ReplyDelete
  5. OK, the original question was "how many ranking points they will have going into the Confed cup".

    Therefore we have indeed to look at the June ranking.

    I was more interested in the question "how deep will Brazil fall due to the fact that they play only friendlies during the next ~23 months", assuming that they are as good in their upcoming frienlies as in the recent years.

    ReplyDelete
  6. The problem with the June ranking is that I don't know the publication date. Brazil had 15 matches in June in 2009, 2010 and 2011 all together. If we don't know the publication date, we won't know which of those games belong to which time frame.

    If we assume that the publication date will be Jun 12 2013 (which is the Wednesday before the start of the Confed Cup), then my estimation goes down to 914 points.

    The difference to Edgar's estimation is that he took the average over the last 4 years friendlies, while I took the average over the last two years. Brazil was less successfull in their more recent friendlies.

    So the results of their friendlies will still be important; there is still uncertainty in the order of ~100 points.

    ReplyDelete
  7. http://www.fifa.com/mm/document/tournament/preliminarydraw/01/48/03/97/prelimdrawpotallocations.pdf

    ReplyDelete