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Friday, July 22, 2011

2014 World Cup seeding: What if?

Wales' choice of not using the June FIFA match dates was a mistake. With a win against any team in the World (how about American Samoa - surely they would have flown to Cardiff in an instant) they would have been in Pot 5, above the Faroe Islands. Read more to see why.

Some teams could have climbed to a higher pot by scheduling and winning a friendly in June/July. In some cases a draw would have been enough.

Let's look at Europe first.

Team - Points needed to climb to a higher pot - Current pot


Switzerland 293.36 3
Israel 486.63 3
Bulgaria 309.42 4
Armenia 429.60 5
Wales 82.37 6
Iceland 282.88 6
Liechtenstein 378.29 6
Kazakhstan 531.97 6

Based on the May ranking (used for games played in June) and June ranking (used for games played in July) and choosing the weakest opponent (based on the Elo Rating), this is what the above table actually means:

Switzerland - a win against Mozambique (in June) or Central African Republic (in July).
Israel - a win against Slovakia.
Bulgaria - a win against Cuba (in June) or Zimbabwe (in July).
Armenia - a win against Algeria (in June) or Georgia (in July)
Wales - a win against American Samoa or a draw against Grenada (in June) or Suriname (in July).
Iceland - a win against Grenada (in June) or Sierra Leone (in July).
Liechtenstein - a win against Armenia.
Kazakhstan - a win against Slovenia.

On to Africa:

Team - Points needed to climb to a higher pot - Current pot


Gabon 398.45 2
Benin 241.39 3
Zimbabwe 347.11 3
Central African Republic 532.51 3
Mozambique 168.00 4
Liberia 481.71 4
Equatorial Guinea 65.65 5
Guinea-Bissau 140.59 5
Chad 165.89 5
Comoros 442.36 5
Lesotho 496.47 5
Swaziland 534.69 5
 
Based on the May ranking (used for games played in June) and June ranking (used for games played in July) and choosing the weakest opponent (based on the Elo Rating), this is what the above table actually means:

Gabon - a win against Algeria (in June)/Georgia (in July).
Benin - a win against Grenada (in June)/Sierra Leone (in July).
Zimbabwe - a win against Armenia.
Central African Republic - a win against Italy.
Mozambique - a win against Puerto Rico (in June) or Dominica (in July) or a draw against Slovenia (in June)/Montenegro (in July).
Liberia - a win against Slovakia (in June)/Slovenia (in July).
Equatorial Guinea - a win against American Samoa or a draw against Luxembourg.
Guinea-Bissau - a win against Puerto Rico or a draw against Lithuania (in June) or Belarus (in July).
Chad - a win against Puerto Rico (in June) or Dominica (in July) or a draw against Slovenia.
Comoros - a win against Slovakia (in June)/Belarus (in July).
Lesotho - a win against Slovenia.
Swaziland - a win against Uruguay (in June)/Italy (in July)

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