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Friday, July 22, 2011

FIFA Ranking: July 2011 final preview

FIFA Ranking: July 2011 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on July 27th. The deadline for matches was yesterday, but I'm sure FIFA will include at least two more matches: the Copa America final (Uruguay - Paraguay) and 3rd place match (Peru - Venezuela).

This is how the totals can change for these two teams:

Uruguay (Loss: 1055, PSO Loss: 1089, PSO Win: 1122, Win: 1156)
Paraguay (Loss: 804, PSO Loss: 833, PSO Win: 862, Win: 891)
Peru (Loss: 726, PSO Loss: 756, PSO Win: 787, Win: 817)
Venezuela (Loss: 648, PSO Loss: 670, PSO Win: 691, Win: 713)

FIFA could also include the first leg of the AFC FIFA World Cup second preliminary round. However, I think that is unlikely.

In the table below, the values displayed for these two teams are the lowest possible - even if they lose their totals won't drop.

Papua New Guinea will disappear from the ranking - no matches in the last 4 years.

Uruguay climb 10 places (at least) and return to the top 10. With a win against Uruguay they will climb to 5th. Mexico drop out of the top 10, losing 11 places.

Best movers:

45 - Bahamas
44 - US Virgin Islands
40 - Dominican Republic

Worst movers:

-28 - Haiti
-21 - Canada
-16 - Nicaragua

Best movers in the top 50:

29 - Venezuela
19 - Colombia
16 - Chile

Peru and/or Paraguay could also join this list. Venezuela can still improve.

Worst movers in the top 50:

-11 - Mexico
-7 - Honduras
-6 - Jamaica

Mexico could drop one extra spot should Paraguay win the Copa America avoinding PSO.

Egypt replace Ghana as 2nd in Africa.

Costa Rica replace Panama as 5th in CONCACAF.

Uruguay replace Argentina as 2nd in CONMEBOL. Peru could climb in the top 5 with a win against Venezuela and a defeat for Paraguay against Uruguay in the Copa America final.

Solomon Islands replace Tahiti in OFC's top 5.

Portugal replace Italy as 5th in Europe.

Five teams will improve their best ever ranking:

Venezuela (40th - 47th in February 2010)
Central African Republic (89th - 91st in June 2011)
Belize (148th - 154th in June 2011)
US Virgin Islands (149th - 190th in April 1999)
Mongolia (162nd - 170th in November 2009)

Two teams will return to their best ever ranking:

Peru (34th - first achieved in September 1997)
Liechtenstein (118th - first achieved in January 2008)

Bermuda will return to their worst ever ranking, 185th, first happened in December 1998.

Ten teams will drop to their worst ever ranking:

Saudi Arabia (94th - 92nd in June 2011)
Canada (104th - 103rd in March 2007)
Malta (172nd - 169th in November 2010)
Sri Lanka (176th - 173rd in March 2011)
Kyrgyzstan (178th - 176th in November 2010)
Lebanon (182nd - 178th in April 2011)
Lesotho (184th - 178th in June 2011)
Mauritania (187th - 183rd in June 2011)
Mauritius (195th - 193rd in September 2010)
Seychelles (199th - 196th in October 2010)

July 2011 rank - Team - July 2011 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Spain 1588 0 -283
2 Netherlands 1542 0 -119
3 Germany 1305 0 -112
4 Brazil 1202 1 72
5 England 1146 -1 0
6 Portugal 1076 1 30
7 Italy 1059 -1 0
8 Uruguay 1055 10 146
9 Croatia 1033 -1 0
10 Argentina 1013 0 34
11 Chile 973 16 191
12 Norway 972 -1 0
13 Greece 959 -1 0
14 Côte d'Ivoire 922 0 0
15 France 920 0 0
16 Japan 918 -3 -7
17 Montenegro 915 -1 0
18 Russia 914 -1 0
19 Sweden 884 0 0
20 Mexico 869 -11 -138
21 Denmark 857 -1 0
22 Slovenia 833 -1 0
23 Australia 831 -1 2
24 Turkey 820 -1 0
25 Paraguay 804 7 61
26 Serbia 797 -1 0
27 Korea Republic 781 -1 -6
28 Slovakia 779 0 0
29 Switzerland 778 0 0
29 USA 778 -5 -21
31 Israel 771 -1 0
32 Republic of Ireland 752 -1 0
33 Egypt 736 1 9
34 Peru 726 15 143
35 Colombia 707 19 143
36 Ghana 696 -3 -39
37 Belgium 691 -2 0
38 Czech Republic 670 -2 0
39 Burkina Faso 661 -2 0
40 Venezuela 648 29 177
41 Bosnia-Herzegovina 642 -2 0
42 Belarus 636 -2 0
43 Nigeria 635 -2 0
44 Jamaica 632 -6 -24
45 Ukraine 620 -3 0
46 Senegal 619 -3 0
47 Hungary 603 -2 0
48 Bulgaria 599 -2 0
49 South Africa 597 -2 0
50 Cameroon 595 -2 0
51 Honduras 592 -7 -21
52 Algeria 575 -1 0
53 Romania 571 0 0
54 Iran 560 -4 -18
55 Tunisia 553 2 26
56 Costa Rica 532 -1 -29
57 Georgia 530 -1 0
58 Lithuania 526 0 0
59 Albania 524 0 0
60 Gabon 517 0 0
61 Scotland 513 0 0
62 Northern Ireland 498 0 0
63 Libya 494 0 0
63 Morocco 494 0 0
65 Panama 487 -13 -87
66 Austria 479 -1 0
67 Ecuador 478 1 5
68 Guinea 475 -2 0
69 Poland 474 -2 0
70 Armenia 462 0 0
71 Botswana 440 3 9
72 Malawi 439 -1 -15
73 Zambia 436 -1 2
74 China PR 431 1 5
75 Finland 419 1 0
76 Uganda 417 1 0
77 Mali 416 1 0
78 El Salvador 401 -6 -33
79 Estonia 399 0 0
80 Bolivia 398 13 42
80 Cyprus 398 0 0
82 Cape Verde Islands 397 -1 0
83 Latvia 388 -1 0
84 Moldova 383 1 0
85 Uzbekistan 381 1 0
86 Benin 380 1 0
86 Zimbabwe 380 1 0
88 Trinidad and Tobago 379 2 5
89 Central African Republic 370 2 0
90 Qatar 359 4 4
91 Jordan 354 -7 -31
92 Sierra Leone 348 3 0
93 New Zealand 345 4 0
94 Saudi Arabia 342 -2 -24
95 FYR Macedonia 338 3 0
96 Kuwait 334 6 5
97 Sudan 333 2 0
98 Niger 331 2 0
99 Cuba 330 2 0
100 Angola 329 2 0
100 Bahrain 329 2 0
100 Gambia 329 2 0
103 Mozambique 327 3 0
104 Canada 314 -21 -73
105 Antigua and Barbuda 308 6 22
105 Syria 308 4 18
107 Suriname 296 1 0
108 Oman 294 -1 -4
109 Iraq 292 -13 -54
110 United Arab Emirates 285 0 -3
111 Azerbaijan 282 1 0
112 Faroe Islands 273 2 0
112 Wales 273 2 0
114 Guyana 269 2 2
115 Guatemala 260 3 -2
115 Korea DPR 260 4 5
117 Haiti 256 -28 -121
118 Liechtenstein 253 2 0
119 Grenada 246 -2 -19
120 Iceland 244 2 0
121 St. Kitts and Nevis 243 0 -5
122 Congo DR 238 2 0
122 Togo 238 -9 -41
124 Liberia 232 1 0
125 Kazakhstan 231 1 0
126 Tanzania 230 1 0
127 Thailand 226 -4 -13
128 Luxembourg 213 0 0
129 Congo 206 0 0
130 Kenya 204 0 0
131 Nepal 203 17 67
132 Dominican Republic 198 40 132
133 Dominica 193 0 0
133 Yemen 193 -2 -6
135 Rwanda 190 -1 1
136 Indonesia 182 -4 -13
137 Tajikistan 180 -2 0
138 Ethiopia 170 -2 0
138 Vietnam 170 2 11
140 Namibia 168 13 51
141 Puerto Rico 167 -4 0
142 Bangladesh 166 21 85
142 Singapore 166 0 11
144 Burundi 164 -5 0
145 Malaysia 162 -1 16
146 Barbados 156 -5 0
147 Turkmenistan 147 -4 0
148 Belize 146 6 34
149 Madagascar 144 -11 -22
149 US Virgin Islands 144 44 132
151 Guinea-Bissau 142 -6 0
152 Bahamas 141 45 132
152 Hong Kong 141 -6 0
154 India 138 -7 1
155 Equatorial Guinea 131 -6 0
156 Fiji 129 0 26
157 Curacao 128 -7 0
158 Chad 127 -6 4
159 Maldives 123 -8 -3
160 Philippines 112 -1 16
160 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 112 -6 0
162 Mongolia 105 17 64
162 Palestine 105 5 33
164 New Caledonia 104 -6 7
165 Myanmar 103 2 31
166 Chinese Taipei 96 -1 19
167 Aruba 95 33 88
168 Swaziland 93 -11 -8
168 Vanuatu 93 5 29
170 Pakistan 91 -1 21
171 Cayman Islands 90 -11 0
172 Malta 83 -11 0
173 Cambodia 81 1 24
173 Laos 81 1 24
175 Comoros 80 -11 0
176 Sri Lanka 79 -5 10
177 Nicaragua 75 -16 -8
178 Afghanistan 72 -12 -3
178 Kyrgyzstan 72 -9 2
180 Solomon Islands 70 0 30
181 Tahiti 57 -7 0
182 Lebanon 55 -5 0
183 St. Lucia 54 2 23
184 Lesotho 44 -6 -3
185 Bermuda 40 -5 0
186 British Virgin Islands 38 -4 0
187 Mauritania 32 -4 0
188 Eritrea 29 -2 0
189 Samoa 26 -2 0
190 Macau 25 -7 -7
191 Somalia 23 -3 0
192 Tonga 15 -2 0
193 Turks and Caicos Islands 13 -1 0
194 Djibouti 12 -1 0
195 Cook Islands 10 0 0
195 Guam 10 0 0
195 Mauritius 10 -6 -7
198 Brunei Darussalam 9 -1 0
199 Anguilla 7 -2 -2
199 Seychelles 7 -9 -8
201 Bhutan 6 0 0
202 Timor-Leste 3 0 0
203 American Samoa 0 0 0
203 Andorra 0 0 0
203 Montserrat 0 0 0
203 San Marino 0 0 0

22 comments:

  1. Let the hunt begin! Without any more competitive games for Brazil, they are vulnerable, and within sight! England can hunt them down and take 4th in the World! Mwa ha ha ha ha!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Edgar, I have a question for you. I noticed some of the Asian countries had friendlies to prepare for their World Cup qualifiers, and held penalty shootouts in the event of a draw. Saudi Arabia beat Jordan and Jordan beat Iraq. This is because Jordan hosted a friendly tournament. Will the teams that won those shootouts claim 2pts in the World rankings, or do penalty shootouts have to be competitive to allow this? Also, if they do get the two points, if two teams played a single, ordinary friendly, and the match was tied, could a shootout be held and 2pts be received by the winner?

    If they do get the 2pts, someone needs to tell my England! We damn sure need penalty shootout practice, and if we lose, we lose no points, we can only gain them. Perhaps a few pressureless penalty shootouts will help reduce the fear factor we associate with them.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Kind of off topic, but:
    Edgar do you know more about the FIFA women's ranking?

    I am confused, I read the rules: http://www.fifa.com/worldfootball/ranking/procedure/women.html
    But what happens if there is a penalty shoot-out? And how is it possible that after Japan 2:1 New Zealand Japan lost 1 point, but NZ didn't gain 1 point? It's clear that after a match which didn't end in a draw the sum of the points of both teams must be 0.

    I also think the formula in the .pdf to calculate the predicted result is wrong.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You'll most likely miss this reply, but I remembered it this morning when posting the women's ranking.

      Most likely the Japan - NZ match was considered a draw for ranking purposes. When teams draw a match, they don't gain/lose the same amount of points.

      Delete
  4. Interesting to see a couple UEFA countries at the bottom of the list. I don't remember ever seeing that before.

    And, congrats, US Virgin Islands! Just goes to show that, down at the bottom of the list, it doesn't take much for a big jump.

    ReplyDelete
  5. So, Uruguay will take 5th and push my England into 6th. And both of us will want to hunt down Brazil. All Uruguay have to do is stay ahead of the other CONMEBOL nations, and they'll surpass Brazil in the rankings. The Copa America already states they are the strongest in South America. They got further than everyone else in the region in the World Cup, and perhaps soon, the ranking table will also say Uruguay are the best in South America. Who would have thought it? Rolling back the clock to the glory days. Add runners up at the U17 World Cup and qualifying for the Olympics at the expense of Argentina as 2nd best in CONMEBOL and Uruguay are looking like a World class football nation right now, again, after so many decades. Big respect for Uruguay from me.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Can you explain me this please?

    Bosnia and Herzegovina will play friendly game VS Greece in August 2011. How much ranking points will Bosnia get if they win VS Greece?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Lorric,

    what's the point of hunting a lame duck? Brazil will go down automatically next August at the latest, when they will have played only friendles for more than 12 months.

    ReplyDelete
  8. "FIFA could also include the first leg of the AFC FIFA World Cup second preliminary round. However, I think that is unlikely."

    Why is that unlikely, Edgar? Games are played on the same day as the 3th place final of the Copa America, and a day before the big final.

    That means that if FIFA adjusts the deadline from Thursday, July 21st to Sunday, July 24th to include the final games of the Copa America, they should include the qualifiers as well?

    If not, this is gonna be a bit of a problem for my database, sorting out the deadlines for the upcoming years. :-)

    ReplyDelete
  9. @ Nando

    Lame duck might still taste nice :)

    Also, it's not a given England will overtake either, lose the Euro qualifying group to Montenegro, then lost the playoff, and England might not pass.

    But anyway, this is the first time in my life I would not regard Brazil as superior if the two sides met. Right now Brazil are currently exhibiting all the criticisms people usually level at England, including ineptitude from the penalty spot.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Edgar, can you explain this to me:

    St. Lucia and Aruba played againt eachother in the first round of the CONCACAF-preliminaries for the 2014 World Cup. Aruba won the first leg by 4:2 and received 330 ranking points.

    In the second leg, St. lucia won ofter extra time with 4:2 and progressed to the next round after a penalty shootout.
    Despite the win in regular time, St. Lucia only received 220 ranking points, and Aruba gained 110 ranking points. Those scores would have been given if it was a single game, which ended in a draw and was decided by a PSO.

    It seems FIFA disregarded the actual result of the game (e.g. a win for St. Lucia), and took the PSO as the decisive factor.

    Did FIFA make a mistake here, or is this common practice?

    ReplyDelete
  11. @Tobcoach (about St. Lucia and Aruba):

    It doesn't make much sense, but it is consistent with what they have done in the past. See this post.

    ReplyDelete
  12. That's bullshit. St. Lucia could then have won this match by any other winning score and got full points. Absolute garbage. St. Lucia should get full points and Aruba should get nothing.

    They'll correct the mistake, won't they? This isn't standard practice, is it? I noticed the scores for these two teams earlier, and couldn't figure it out. Now I know why.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Hi Edgar & Tobcoach,
    Please let me know that whether India is going to get any points in Aug ranking? In 2014 Fifa World Cup they have lost to UAE in away leg 3 goals to 0 but drew with UAE in home leg 2-2. I dont know the system, i have heard that the points will be given on aggregate it means india lost 5-2 to UAE.
    Please let me know the situation.

    ReplyDelete
  14. @Lorric

    You get 2 points even if the PSO is not competitive.

    @Anonymous

    The women's ranking doesn't interest me as I don't follow women's football. That ranking was by request. However, you are right - New Zealand should have gained a point - because points are exchanged much like in the Elo ratings. Feel free to contact FIFA about it.

    @Anonymous

    Possible outcomes for Bosnia and Herzegovina:

    L: 637, D: 656, W: 693

    @Tobcoach

    I would have included both legs in the same ranking. FIFA did include the first leg so at least you don't have to change your database :)

    @Alex

    Thanks!

    @Lorric

    No, they won't. This is standard practice. See the link Alex posted.

    @Anonymous

    India got 10.74 points for the draw against UAE. However, due to devaluation of results, India will have only 112 in the August ranking.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Edgar, just out of curiosity, how did Papua New Guinea manage to receive a bye to the second round when they are easily the lowest ranked OFC nation, aren't even in the rankings this month and did not participate in 2010 qualification? According to FIFA the seeding was based on the current ranking and "other sporting considerations".. do you know what this means?
    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  16. About Papua New Guinea:

    I don't know who decided to give them the bye, or exactly why. But based on their past record, they have often been a significantly stronger side than Samoa, so it makes at least some sense.

    For example, in the 2002 OFC Nations Cup, PNG won the 5-team preliminary group with a 100% record and +18 goal difference. They also had very respectable results in the 2004 edition. In both of those tournaments, PNG beat Samoa by a score of 4:1.

    Unfortunately, that 2004 win was PNG's last competitive match, and their last senior international other than a 1:2 friendly loss to the Solomon Islands in 2007. That lack of matches, of course, is the reason PNG are "easily the lowest ranked OFC nation" -- no matches means no FIFA Ranking points.

    However, virtually all of the other reputable ranking systems out there (for example, Elo, Voros, SPI) rank PNG ahead of Samoa, often by a wide margin. PNG have also put up some very decent results in recent youth competitions (2008 Olympic, 2011 U-17, 2011 U-20.)

    Of course, the counterargument to all this is: "The ranking is the ranking, and it reflects that they haven't demonstrated their strength at senior level in the past four years. If they're truly so strong, they should be able to prove it by fighting up out of the bottom pot (as Montenegro have done in Europe.)"

    Personally, I think come down on the side of the latter argument. Seeding the true strongest teams is a worthy goal, of course, but when an established objective criterion is already being used, we should stick to it all the way, instead of making arbitrary exceptions based on subjective "considerations." And if the problem is that the existing objective criterion does not reflect the teams' true strength, then a better objective criterion should be used or developed, which does. :)

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  17. @ Alex

    I was thinking about this too. PNG probably are stronger than those other teams. But maybe they could have made it a 5 team preliminary, top 2 advance.

    ReplyDelete
  18. @Alex

    Thanks heaps! That definitely cleared things up. I've since found Edgar posted something on this matter too.. http://www.football-rankings.info/2011/07/ofc-and-sporting-reasons.html

    Maybe you should post what you said on there?

    Thanks again.

    ReplyDelete
  19. @ Edgar

    I missed this one until now. That is a complete joke by FIFA with the St. Lucia situation.

    As for penalty shootouts, that should be exploited.

    ReplyDelete
  20. When The Netherlands win from england, Netherlands are number 1 on ranking !!

    ReplyDelete
  21. @Nic: You're welcome.

    At your suggestion, I'll post a link to this thread on the other post, since the discussion is relevant.

    ReplyDelete