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Friday, July 1, 2011

FIFA Ranking: July 2011 probable ranking

Next update: July 15th, 2011.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Papua New Guinea will no longer be listed in the July ranking.

Probable July 2011 rank - Team - Probable July 2011 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Spain 1588 0 -283
2 Netherlands 1542 0 -119
3 Brazil 1494 2 364
4 Germany 1305 -1 -112
5 Argentina 1225 5 246
6 England 1146 -2 0
7 Chile 1085 20 303
8 Portugal 1076 -1 30
9 Uruguay 1071 9 162
10 Italy 1059 -4 0
11 Croatia 1033 -3 0
12 Norway 972 -1 0
13 Greece 959 -1 0
14 Côte d'Ivoire 922 0 0
15 France 920 0 0
16 Japan 918 -3 -7
17 Montenegro 915 -1 0
18 Russia 914 -1 0
19 Mexico 911 -10 -96
20 Sweden 884 -1 0
21 Denmark 857 -1 0
22 Slovenia 833 -1 0
23 Australia 831 -1 2
24 Turkey 820 -1 0
25 Serbia 797 0 0
26 Korea Republic 781 0 -6
27 Slovakia 779 1 0
28 Switzerland 778 1 0
28 USA 778 -4 -21
30 Israel 771 0 0
31 Republic of Ireland 752 0 0
32 Egypt 736 2 9
33 Ghana 696 0 -39
34 Paraguay 692 -2 -51
35 Belgium 691 0 0
36 Czech Republic 670 0 0
37 Colombia 663 17 99
38 Burkina Faso 661 -1 0
39 Bosnia-Herzegovina 642 0 0
40 Belarus 636 0 0
41 Nigeria 635 0 0
42 Jamaica 632 -4 -24
43 Ukraine 620 -1 0
44 Senegal 619 -1 0
45 Hungary 603 0 0
46 Bulgaria 599 0 0
47 South Africa 597 0 0
48 Cameroon 595 0 0
49 Honduras 592 -5 -21
50 Algeria 575 1 0
51 Romania 571 2 0
52 Iran 560 -2 -18
53 Tunisia 553 4 26
54 Georgia 530 2 0
55 Peru 529 -6 -54
56 Lithuania 526 2 0
57 Albania 524 2 0
58 Gabon 517 2 0
59 Scotland 513 2 0
60 Ecuador 504 8 31
61 Northern Ireland 498 1 0
62 Libya 494 1 0
62 Morocco 494 1 0
64 Venezuela 489 5 18
65 Panama 487 -13 -87
66 Costa Rica 486 -11 -75
67 Austria 479 -2 0
68 Guinea 475 -2 0
69 Poland 474 -2 0
70 Armenia 462 0 0
71 Bolivia 453 22 97
72 Malawi 450 -1 -4
73 Botswana 440 1 9
74 Zambia 436 -2 2
75 China PR 431 0 5
76 Finland 419 0 0
77 Uganda 417 0 0
78 Mali 416 0 0
79 El Salvador 401 -7 -33
80 Estonia 399 -1 0
81 Cyprus 398 -1 0
82 Cape Verde Islands 397 -1 0
83 Latvia 388 -1 0
84 Moldova 383 1 0
85 Uzbekistan 381 1 0
86 Benin 380 1 0
86 Zimbabwe 380 1 0
88 Trinidad and Tobago 379 2 5
89 Jordan 374 -5 -11
90 Central African Republic 370 1 0
91 Qatar 355 3 0
92 Sierra Leone 348 3 0
93 New Zealand 345 4 0
94 Saudi Arabia 343 -2 -23
95 FYR Macedonia 338 3 0
96 Sudan 333 3 0
97 Kuwait 331 5 2
97 Niger 331 3 0
99 Cuba 330 2 0
100 Angola 329 2 0
100 Bahrain 329 2 0
100 Gambia 329 2 0
103 Mozambique 327 3 0
104 Canada 314 -21 -73
105 Antigua and Barbuda 308 6 22
105 Syria 308 4 18
107 Iraq 303 -11 -43
108 Suriname 296 0 0
109 United Arab Emirates 285 1 -3
110 Oman 284 -3 -14
111 Azerbaijan 282 1 0
112 Faroe Islands 273 2 0
112 Wales 273 2 0
114 Guyana 269 2 2
115 Guatemala 260 3 -2
115 Korea DPR 260 4 5
117 Haiti 256 -28 -121
118 Liechtenstein 253 2 0
119 Grenada 246 -2 -19
120 Iceland 244 2 0
121 St. Kitts and Nevis 243 0 -5
122 Congo DR 238 2 0
122 Togo 238 -9 -41
124 Liberia 232 1 0
125 Kazakhstan 231 1 0
126 Tanzania 230 1 0
126 Thailand 230 -3 -9
128 Luxembourg 213 0 0
129 Congo 206 0 0
130 Kenya 204 0 0
131 Nepal 203 17 67
132 Yemen 199 -1 0
133 Dominican Republic 198 39 132
134 Dominica 193 -1 0
135 Rwanda 190 -1 1
136 Malaysia 186 8 40
137 Indonesia 182 -5 -13
138 Tajikistan 180 -3 0
139 Ethiopia 170 -3 0
139 Vietnam 170 1 11
141 Puerto Rico 167 -4 0
142 Bangladesh 166 21 85
142 Singapore 166 0 11
144 Burundi 164 -5 0
145 Barbados 156 -4 0
146 Turkmenistan 147 -3 0
147 Madagascar 144 -9 -22
148 Guinea-Bissau 142 -3 0
149 Hong Kong 141 -3 0
150 India 135 -3 -2
151 Equatorial Guinea 131 -2 0
152 Curacao 128 -2 0
152 Palestine 128 15 56
154 Chad 127 -2 4
155 British Virgin Islands 126 27 88
156 Maldives 123 -5 -3
157 Namibia 120 -4 3
158 Belize 112 -4 0
158 Philippines 112 1 16
158 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 112 -4 0
161 Mongolia 105 18 64
161 Myanmar 105 6 33
163 New Caledonia 104 -5 7
164 Fiji 103 -8 0
165 Bahamas 97 32 88
166 Swaziland 93 -9 -8
167 Pakistan 91 2 21
168 Cayman Islands 90 -8 0
169 Solomon Islands 87 11 47
170 Malta 83 -9 0
171 St. Lucia 82 14 51
172 Cambodia 81 2 24
173 Comoros 80 -9 0
174 Sri Lanka 79 -3 10
175 Laos 75 -1 18
175 Nicaragua 75 -14 -8
177 Kyrgyzstan 72 -8 2
178 Chinese Taipei 69 -13 -8
179 Afghanistan 59 -13 -16
179 Vanuatu 59 -6 -5
181 Tahiti 57 -7 0
182 Lebanon 55 -5 0
183 Lesotho 44 -5 -3
184 Bermuda 40 -4 0
185 Turks and Caicos Islands 35 7 22
186 US Virgin Islands 34 7 22
187 Mauritania 32 -4 0
188 Aruba 29 12 22
188 Eritrea 29 -2 0
190 Samoa 26 -3 0
191 Macau 25 -8 -7
192 Somalia 23 -4 0
193 Tonga 15 -3 0
194 Djibouti 12 -1 0
195 Cook Islands 10 0 0
195 Guam 10 0 0
195 Mauritius 10 -6 -7
198 Brunei Darussalam 9 -1 0
199 Anguilla 7 -2 -2
199 Seychelles 7 -9 -8
201 Bhutan 6 0 0
202 Timor-Leste 3 0 0
203 American Samoa 0 0 0
203 Andorra 0 0 0
203 Montserrat 0 0 0
203 San Marino 0 0 0

25 comments:

  1. Edger, I find it interesting that the U.S. lost 21 points considering that Copa America 2007 would drop completely from the rankings. Gold Cup 2009 drops to 30% from 50% weighting in the rankings. Thus, was the U.S. Argentina 2007 Copa America game dropped from the June rankings? I would think not much was lost from the loss to Mexico in the 2009 final or the win versus Grenada or the tie versus Haiti. Thus, the points lost has to be from the two wins versus Honduras and the win versus Panama in Gold Cup 2009. Also, in the August rankings the U.S. loss to Sweden in August 2007 should likely be dropped from that month's ranking.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Why are the Faroe Islands ranked above Wales on this rankinglist and below Wales on the official Fifa world ranking list? http://www.fifa.com/worldfootball/ranking/lastranking/gender=m/fullranking.html#confederation=0&rank=205&page=3
    This is actually important because, according to this list, Wales should be seeded lower than the Faroe Islands in the next world cup tournament.

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  3. Why does El Salvador lose 33 points? And can it be prevented?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Nepal Beats Timor Leste played on 29th june and 2nd july By 2-1 and 5-0 so what will be ranking of nepal??? is this already calculated??

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  5. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  6. I do not understand why Brazil is listed with 1494 probable points, and with maximum 1587 points, so they would have 93 probable points less than possible points.

    I understand from the probable results that Brazil only misses one point from the points maxinal possible, in the final of the Copa America, against Argentina.

    But that should only make a difference of 3*1.9*100/14 = 41 points.

    (3 is the weight of the tournament, 1.9 is the weight of Argentina, and Brazil will have 14 matches in the last 12 months time frame - but only if they make it to the final!)

    What is the mistake here?

    Can it be that the spread between the minimal possible and the maximal possible value of Brazil is calculated under the erroneous assumption of 6 defeats in the Copa America for the minimal case, thus not taking into account that they would be out after the first three defeats already?

    ReplyDelete
  7. @ Nando

    I believe it's the maximum if Brazil were to face and beat the highest ranked opponents available.

    It's moot now anyway though, since they failed to beat Venezuela, they can't get the total anyway.

    ReplyDelete
  8. OK, that makes sense. So if they met Uruguay, Chile and Argentina in the KO stage, they would have been able to reach the 1587 points.

    They gave away 56 possible points in the draw with Venezuela, so now 1531 is the maximun value possible.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Oops, I forgot that Mexico also is in the tournament.

    So the three highest ranked possible opponents would be Mexico, Argentina and Uruguay.

    ReplyDelete
  10. @dave:
    Yes, the entire 2007 Copa America will drop out of the July 2011 ranking (and the Sweden match from the August ranking.)
    Also, yes, I imagine much of the loss for the USA is from those 4 wins in the 2009 Gold Cup. Don't underestimate the value of the Grenada win, either. Wins in competitive matches (even against lesser teams) can be surprisingly valuable because of the high Match Importance weighting. (A Gold Cup match is worth 3 times more than a friendly.)
    Honduras wins = 1231.65 raw points each
    Panama win = 1002.15 raw points
    Grenada win = 856.8 raw points

    @Høgni á:
    See this post: UEFA seeding: Wales vs. Faroe Islands

    @La Selecta:
    El Salvador will lose 33 points because of revaluation of older results.
    It looks like the biggest factor is probably your 2009 Gold Cup win over Costa Rica (worth 1300.5 raw points) losing value.

    @Suraj:
    Yes, Nepal's results matched the predicted probable results, so Nepal will definitely have 203 points in the July ranking.

    @Nando:
    Yes, I believe you and Lorric are right about the knockout stage opponents.

    ReplyDelete
  11. @Alex

    Thanks again!

    @La Selecta

    See this comment.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Argentina are gone. I'm curious where they'll end up in the ranking. They've been woeful in their own tournament, and yet, they didn't actually lose any games. A win and 3 draws. And with those results at 3X points, and no competitive games in the year until now and crucially, no zeros, I'm guessing their total will rise, and by quite a bit too. I hope they stay below my England though!

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  13. @ Lorric: Argentina will end up on 9th or 10th spot, I believe. It depends a bit on the results of the last games of the Copa America, but when I use the same method as Edgar, the Argentinians will be 10th. Uruguay up to 5th when they would win both matches, just behind Brazil.

    But with this strange results, you never know. If Uruguay loses both matches, they will be 12th, and Argentina 9th (with Chile just behind Argentina). A surprise Copa-win for Venezuela could end them up rocketing into the top 30. A Copa-win for Peru will mean they will be in the top-20.

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  14. Then I hope the underdogs continue to bite hard, to keep England nice and high! :)

    Bring on a Peru/Venezuela final! Turn CONMEBOL completely on it's head!

    I presume Brazil would pass England, and England would be 5th under the circumstances of a Peru/Venezuela final.

    Oh, you don't happen to know why Brazil met Paraguay again in the quarters do you? You or anyone else. Why didn't they get Peru instead? It seems nonsensical to face the third place team from your group, when an alternative is readily available. They don't let that happen in the CONCACAF Gold Cup I don't think.

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  15. @Lorric: has to do with the pre-fixed system they used. The number 1 of group A was destined to play the best number 3, and the number 1 of group B the 2nd best number 3.

    It should have been better to use a pre-fixed draw like this:

    Number 1 group A vs. Number 3 group B or C
    Number 1 group B vs. Number 3 group A or C

    I'm a bit suprised that they didn't. In that case, Columbia should have played against Paraguay and Brazil against Peru.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Edger, India Has beaten the Qatar in Football friendly on 17/07/2011 by 2 goals to 1.
    Now is indian ranking will change as compared what you have shown in your article.
    Please let me know?

    ReplyDelete
  17. And India drew with Maldives. Whether this will help in some extra points?

    ReplyDelete
  18. @ Tobcoach

    hi Tobcoach. Damn, that's a bad system. And very strange too. You'd think they'd set it up for the group A winner to play the 2nd best 3rd, to advantage the host Argentina. I wouldn't be opposed to 1st and 3rd from the same group playing each other if the system was best group winner vs 2nd best 3rd place. And if there was such a system I'd have it set up to continue on to 2nd best winner vs best 3rd place, 3rd best winner vs 3rd best 2nd place and the other two 2nd place finishers against each other. The winner of the match between the two second places would face the winner of the match involving the best group winner. Clear rewards and incentive for doing well. I really don't like how they decide in advance in these things which groups are going to face the third place teams and which groups will have 2nd place teams facing other 2nd place teams while some seond place teams have to face winners. It should be up for grabs for the beast performers. It would also encourage attacking play in the group stages. You'd know if you were the best performing group winner, you'd likely avoid the two best teams until the final. I know they'd never go for it, as it would mean Brazil and Argentina could end up on the same side, but just out of curiosity, here's how it would have turned out if they'd done that with the Copa:

    Colombia vs Paraguay
    vs
    Argentina vs Venezuela

    Chile vs Paraguay
    vs
    Brazil vs Uruguay

    And hey, I'll do the Gold Cup as well while I'm at it, though I know they'd also never go for it as it could put USA and Mexico on the same side, but anyway:

    Mexico vs El Salvador
    vs
    United States vs Honduras

    Jamaica vs Guatemala
    vs
    Panama vs Costa Rica

    I don't think that would have gone down well!

    ReplyDelete
  19. @ Tobcoach

    I'd also schedule the quarter finals involving the two best group winners on the first day of competition. This would mean if the group winners beat their third place opponents, they'd have an extra day of rest over their semi final opponent. A further incentive to play hard in the group stages.

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  20. @Anonymous, July 18, 2011 4:57 PM: The win against Qatar will mean that India will have a total of 147 points, instead of the 135 of Edgar, because Edgar calculated a loss against Qatar (which is understandable, regarding the difference in points on the ELO-rating).

    Rankingwise it will not help India much, because they probably reamain somewhere around the 150th place.

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  21. Thanks Tobcoach but i think india is not going to get any points because they have used 10 subsitutes in a single match and as per Fifa rules, In frienlies you are only allow to use 5 subsitutes....
    Thanks again and have fun

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  22. This situation also happened in the 2007 Copa where Venezuela had to face Uruguay in the knockout stage immediately after playing them in the final group match. The group match ended 0-0 while the knockout match ended 4-1 to Uruguay.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Well, India indeed used 10 subs in the game against ata, so I presume the FIFA will not acknowledge the game as an "A"-match and the game will be removed from the list.

    But for now, it still stands on the FIFA-website, so I'm curious as to when the FIFA will decide on the game.

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  24. Yes Tobcoach, Fifa already deleted the match from their site. I think they have decided to remove. Now my only hope is on India Vs UAE, World Cup Qualifier. Let's hope for the best.....
    By the way thanks again

    ReplyDelete